919
FXUS64 KFWD 212312
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH STRONG STORMS AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA, AND A
RATHER PLEASANT BUT BREEZY DAY IS SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE RED
RIVER TO MID 80S IN CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A STEADY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 MPH. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 15-25% ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH,
WITH ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL MITIGATE THE WILDFIRE THREAT, BUT CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED TO PREVENT ANY WILDFIRE STARTS.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY CLIMB WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS IN THE EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED GIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, A STRONG
STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
WHILE NBM POPS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE, WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING US RAIN-FREE UNTIL
FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY, A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO NEW MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, A
SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THESE FEATURES APPROACH
THE REGION, WITH A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL
POTENTIALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF ~1000-1500 J/KG WITH ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, ALL THREE OF WHICH WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, IT
IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THIS THREAT WILL EMERGE,
AS THERE ARE STILL TIMING/PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES WITH EACH OF THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES AT PLAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
GOING TO BE A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MANY AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES
ON AVERAGE, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
STORM CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RATHER MILD OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. OUR STREAK OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS A RATHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CONUS, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EMERGING BEHIND THE
FRONT, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT MISS OUT ON WETTING RAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS. NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MAY BECOME NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE AT TIMES
AFTER 06Z. BY 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10
KTS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
LANGFELD
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 81 61 83 66 / 0 0 10 20 30
WACO 51 82 61 87 65 / 0 0 0 5 10
PARIS 48 79 52 80 61 / 0 0 5 20 30
DENTON 46 80 56 82 63 / 0 0 10 20 40
MCKINNEY 49 80 56 81 63 / 0 0 10 30 30
DALLAS 55 82 62 84 67 / 0 0 10 20 30
TERRELL 48 82 56 83 62 / 0 0 5 20 20
CORSICANA 51 83 60 86 65 / 0 0 5 10 10
TEMPLE 50 82 59 87 64 / 0 0 0 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 47 83 58 87 65 / 0 0 5 10 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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