706
FXUS64 KFWD 221046
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A LOW THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW.
- ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 203 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
QUIET AND COOL LATE OCTOBER NIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 60S.
AS USUAL, AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE METROPLEX URBAN HEAT ISLAND ARE
MUCH COOLER, AS SHOWN BY THE CURRENT READING OF 63 DEGREES AT DFW
BUT 47 DEGREES AT DTO. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S BY SUNRISE, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
WAA STRENGTHENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING H5 LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
PROMPT A WARM FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS MLCAPE WILL BE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 70 KNOTS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 203 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025/
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH
TEXAS, AS THE H5 LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A 50KT H5 JET
STREAK EMERGES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO, WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH KEEPS THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
NEVERTHELESS, MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP
TO 7.5 C/KM AND 0-8KM SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS RANGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN ALBEIT LOW THREATS, WITH ANY TORNADO
THREAT QUITE LOW DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
OF MORE CONCERN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS PWATS RISING TO NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (1.8 INCHES), WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20
KTS ALLOWING FOR QUICK RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. GUIDANCE VARIES
WILDLY ON QPF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF/NBM SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. LREF
GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA, BUT THE
10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH
TO NEARLY 5 INCHES. BASED ON ALL THIS GUIDANCE, MOST REASONABLE
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AREAWIDE, WHICH
MATCHES THE LREF 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE, WITH LOCALLY 4 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF RAINFALL THE PAST
MONTH, THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MORE BENEFICIAL THAN
DETRIMENTAL, BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND IF/WHERE ANY HEAVIER TOTALS OCCUR.
WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE THE LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL BUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW NEARING -20C AT
500MB, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM, AND LOW WEB-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 9000 FT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH SOME
STORMS. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY AND FINALLY MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 70S.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WARRANTED
ACROSS OUR EAST AND THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS OR FIRE WEATHER
GREATLY DIMINISHED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, IT LOOKS TO
FINALLY FEEL LIKE FALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL LIKELY.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
7K FT AT KACT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO KACT AROUND 11Z, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT
D10 AIRPORTS BETWEEN 12-16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z TODAY, THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR THE END OF AND AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 61 84 66 80 / 0 5 20 30 50
WACO 82 59 86 65 83 / 0 0 5 5 40
PARIS 79 51 80 60 78 / 0 0 10 20 40
DENTON 80 56 83 63 80 / 0 5 20 40 60
MCKINNEY 80 55 82 63 80 / 0 5 20 30 50
DALLAS 81 61 85 66 82 / 0 5 20 20 50
TERRELL 81 55 83 63 82 / 0 5 20 20 40
CORSICANA 83 59 86 65 84 / 0 5 10 5 40
TEMPLE 83 60 87 65 83 / 0 0 5 5 50
MINERAL WELLS 82 58 87 64 82 / 0 5 10 40 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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