617
FXUS64 KFWD 050547
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN
QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.
- A SECOND MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH, AS APPARENT BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE VIA SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES, WARMTH, AND DRYNESS. EXPECT VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, LOWS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S, AND LOW HUMIDITY DURING THE DAYTIME.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE (5-10%) THAT PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN SHELTERED AREAS OF
THE BRAZOS VALLEY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S, NEAR 60 IN ISOLATED AREAS
IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
FOG (20-40%) THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY
WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER (UNDER 5 MPH) DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO AREAS ALONG THE I-35 AND I-20 CORRIDOR
(WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT, A LITTLE TOO STRONG TO
FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT). ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
FRIDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION,
BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LESS TO DO WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION, AND WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY MORE EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT DUE TO LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE LOW AND
MID 80S. LOWS WILL DECREASE FROM THE LOW 60S FRIDAY MORNING, TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT.
A SECOND MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA NORTH TO
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, TO THE MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXOMA AND
THE BIG COUNTRY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 20-25 DEGREES COLDER
THAN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, WITH MOST SEEING HIGHS IN
THE 60S. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380 MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH MOST SEEING GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH,
MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE'VE SEEN THIS FALL, WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I-20 OUTSIDE OF THE DFW METROPLEX. LOWS IN THE METROPLEX WILL
LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND
EFFECT. LOWS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE
MID AND UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S, WITH 30S AND LOW 40S EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY ONWARD, A GENERAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY.
DARRAH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BRAZOS VALLEY WEDNESDAY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ANY CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KACT. AS SUCH, VFR CONDITIONS,
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
DARRAH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 78 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 75 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 78 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 78 57 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 78 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 78 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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