308
FXUS64 KFWD 061809
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1209 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
A STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH A SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COME TOMORROW MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED AND SHALLOW, YIELDING LITTLE MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
SURGE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S AND WILL
BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS MOISTURE RETURNS REMAINS LIMITED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S, LEADING TO
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS WILL INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY. BY MID-WEEK, HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S, BRINGING THE REGION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS. THE REST OF TODAY
WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT, A MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AND MAINLY
IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CAN'T RULE OUT FEW-SCT
CLOUDS BETWEEN 1-2K FEET AT KACT, HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOMORROW MORNING, LEADING TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES AROUND 16Z. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA, HOWEVER, A FEW CLOUDS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL
ARRIVE AT KACT CLOSER TO 21Z TOMORROW WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
EXPECTED TO BE THE SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 60 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 60 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 57 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 60 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 62 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 60 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 62 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 58 86 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 57 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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