608
FXUS64 KFWD 062339
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
A STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH A SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COME TOMORROW MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED AND SHALLOW, YIELDING LITTLE MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
SURGE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S AND WILL
BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS MOISTURE RETURNS REMAINS LIMITED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S, LEADING TO
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS WILL INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY. BY MID-WEEK, HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S, BRINGING THE REGION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT THIS EVENING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SHALLOW MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE RESULTING LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE PROBABILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS REACHING ANY OF THE TAF SITES REMAINS BELOW 10%.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX TERMINALS
AROUND 15-16Z FRIDAY AND REACH KACT NEAR 20Z. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE DRY, THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS NEAR 2-3 KFT COULD BRIEFLY
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS FRIDAY
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 61 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 61 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 57 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 60 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 63 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 60 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 63 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 59 86 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page