051
FXUS64 KFWD 070541
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
- THERE ARE NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS WILL OCCUR DESPITE THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT. MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF
AFTERNOON HIGHS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THE DRY PREFRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE FRONTAL PASSAGE AREA-WIDE. LOW
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL REACHING
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW QUICKLY
RESUMES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
COOLDOWN BY SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PRECEDED BY ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES
HEADING INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DRY AIRMASS PRECEDING THE
BOUNDARY'S ARRIVAL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ARE NIL.
A SHARPLY COOLER SUNDAY WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH STOUT COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW. WHILE WINDS INITIALLY WON'T BE TERRIBLY STRONG WITH THE
FROPA, 30-40 KT MOMENTUM IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL BEGIN
TRANSLATING TO THE SURFACE WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING ON
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A COOL AND BREEZY DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 50S IN NORTH TEXAS TO MID 60S IN CENTRAL TEXAS, WHILE WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE DAYTIME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE SEASON SO FAR, WITH MAY AREAS FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. IT IS LIKELY THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
REQUIRE FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF THE SEASON,
AND THESE AREAS WILL BE NARROWED DOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE WORKWEEK WILL START OUT SEASONABLY COOL AS THE POST-FRONTAL
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER, AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RESUME AND A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH NO MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ANY MORNING STRATUS SHUNTED
EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SET TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS AROUND 16-17Z AND THROUGH WACO AT
18-19Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NW WIND SHIFT AT 10-15 KTS. ASIDE
FROM THE WIND SHIFT, NO OTHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
FEATURE'S PASSAGE. A NW WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 61 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 83 60 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 81 60 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 81 56 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 60 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 83 62 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 82 60 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 84 62 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 84 58 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 84 56 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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