193
FXUS64 KFWD 081112
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
512 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND A FREEZE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.
- THERE ARE NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG HAS ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN EAST TEXAS
WHERE MOISTURE WAS NOT EFFECTIVELY SCOURED BY YESTERDAY'S WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE,
BUT SHELTERED LOW-LYING AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALREADY RECOVER TO SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS OUR MUCH-ANTICIPATED STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER
IN THE DAY. VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION PRIOR
TO THE BOUNDARY'S ARRIVAL WILL SEND HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
THE FRONT'S INITIAL WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL OUTPACE THE BOUNDARY'S ACTUAL
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT BY SEVERAL HOURS. MORE PRONOUNCED CHANGES IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER WON'T BECOME TREMENDOUSLY NOTICEABLE UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND WITH DRY AIR PRECEDING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NIL. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE MOMENTUM FROM 30-40 KT WINDS IN THE 925-850
MB LAYER IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
COOLER SUNDAY (BY 20+ DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS) WITH BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THESE SPEEDS ARE
LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
WITH THIS MORNING'S FORECAST ISSUANCE, A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES (WHICH ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE IN LATE OCTOBER)
AND A FEW OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST
TO HOLD AT LOWS OF 33-35 ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND
LESSENING WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS
THE MID 20S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
PRODUCT MAY STILL BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE
TRANSITIONING FROM THE WATCH TO WARNING TIME PERIOD. THE SMALL BIT
OF GOOD NEWS FOR MONDAY MORNING IS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL HAVE
GREATLY SUBSIDED, SO WIND CHILL VALUES WON'T BE MUCH LOWER THAN
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK.
FOLLOWING THE COLD START TO THE WEEK, A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE FOR THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY, AND HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL
BE SLOW HOWEVER, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ZERO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY
RETURN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND AT THE ABSOLUTE EARLIEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
NEARLY CALM WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS, WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW RESUMING AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF D10, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF DAL BEFORE MIXING OUT AFTER SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY, AND THIS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 20Z AT METROPLEX TAF
SITES AND CLOSER TO 22Z AT WACO. POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL
INITIALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS, BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS, MOSTLY CLEAR VFR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 49 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 82 51 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 79 47 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 80 44 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 80 46 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 51 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 82 48 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 84 51 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 83 50 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 84 44 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>135-144>148-159>162-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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