682
FXUS64 KFWD 090539
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING.
- FOLLOWING A WARMER AND RAIN-FREE WORKWEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
OUR MUCH-ANTICIPATED FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON IS
CLEARING OUR FINAL SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF 1130 PM, WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS
OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME, WITH RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION OFFSETTING
DIABATIC HEATING. THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON, AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. TONIGHT, MUCH OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE THE FIRST
FREEZING TEMPS OF THE SEASON, AND THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONVERTED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE
ONLY ZONES EXCLUDED FROM THIS PRODUCT ARE OUR WESTERN ZONES (WHICH
ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE AT THE END OF OCTOBER) AND OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH ARE PROGGED TO HOLD IN THE MID 30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR NORTH TEXAS, A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 20S AS EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LESSENING WIND SPEEDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON MONDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
FOLLOWING OUR ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK, LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A FAIRLY QUICK WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THIS COULD
CULMINATE IN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP RH
VALUES LOW AMID STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY NEXT WEEKEND,
EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AXIS,
ALTHOUGH A LARGE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRING.
MOST OF THE GEFS SUITE INDICATES A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE REGION AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, WHILE A LARGER
PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER CUTOFF LOW
SOLUTION. SOME LOW POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, BUT
A TREND TOWARDS A CLOSED LOW SETUP WOULD LIKELY DELAY RAIN
CHANCES TO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME INSTEAD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE NOW IN PLACE AT THE TAF SITES FOLLOWING A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY EVENING. WINDS OF 15-20 KTS
AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAYTIME BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS
EVENING. ASIDE FROM A CIRRUS PLUME PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 50 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 82 52 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 82 47 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 81 46 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 48 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 82 50 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 82 49 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 85 52 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 85 52 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 85 46 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>135-143>148-159>162-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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