975
FXUS64 KFWD 091108
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
508 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MORNING.
- FOLLOWING A WARMER AND RAIN-FREE WORKWEEK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
OUR MUCH-ANTICIPATED FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON IS
CLEARING OUR FINAL SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF 1130 PM, WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS
OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME, WITH RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION OFFSETTING
DIABATIC HEATING. THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON, AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. TONIGHT, MUCH OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE THE FIRST
FREEZING TEMPS OF THE SEASON, AND THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONVERTED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE
ONLY ZONES EXCLUDED FROM THIS PRODUCT ARE OUR WESTERN ZONES (WHICH
ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE AT THE END OF OCTOBER) AND OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH ARE PROGGED TO HOLD IN THE MID 30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR NORTH TEXAS, A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 20S AS EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LESSENING WIND SPEEDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON MONDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
FOLLOWING OUR ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK, LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A FAIRLY QUICK WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THIS COULD
CULMINATE IN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP RH
VALUES LOW AMID STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY NEXT WEEKEND,
EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AXIS,
ALTHOUGH A LARGE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRING.
MOST OF THE GEFS SUITE INDICATES A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE REGION AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, WHILE A LARGER
PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER CUTOFF LOW
SOLUTION. SOME LOW POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, BUT
A TREND TOWARDS A CLOSED LOW SETUP WOULD LIKELY DELAY RAIN
CHANCES TO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME INSTEAD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN SPEED THIS
MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING ENSUES, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYTIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS
EVENING WHERE THEY'LL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. ASIDE FROM A SCT/BKN
CIRRUS PLUME PRESENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD, MOSTLY CLEAR VFR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 58 34 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 63 31 56 38 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 53 28 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 57 28 53 36 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 58 31 53 37 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 59 35 55 41 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 30 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 61 33 56 38 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 64 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 59 28 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>135-143>148-159>162-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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