695
FXUS64 KFWD 091806
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- FOLLOWING A WARMER AND RAIN-FREE WORKWEEK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A CHILLY AND BRISK FALL DAY IS UNFOLDING IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL OFFSET DAYTIME WARMING, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO MID 60S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, WITH A
LIGHT NORTH WIND PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL SEASON AS
LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT COLDER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, NOW
ADVERTISING A 20-40% CHANCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
LAMPASAS, CORYELL, BELL, AND MILAM COUNTIES. THEREFORE, THE FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING
POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER CHILLY BUT PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
FOLLOWING A CHILLY START TO THE WEEK, WE'LL QUICKLY WARM UP ON
TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
SCOURED FROM THE REGION, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO
15-25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS ALSO
BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS NOW A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL THAT A PATTERN
SHIFT MAY BEGIN TO UNFOLD NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS NEXT SATURDAY OR PERHAPS
IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT TIMING WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE
WE'LL BE HEADING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM NEXT
WEEKEND ONWARD, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AIR AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OR SO. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING, DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY 05-06Z
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOUTH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 34 54 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 31 56 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 28 51 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 28 53 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 31 53 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 35 55 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 30 54 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 33 56 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 33 58 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 28 58 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>135-143>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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