312
FXUS64 KFWD 101118
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY COOL MONDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
70S AND 80S.
- AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE WEST OF I-35 ON
TUESDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEXT WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH MOST OF THE CWA SET TO BEGIN THE DAY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AFTERNOON
WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITY
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WITH THE POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY AT 10 MPH OR LESS, AND THEY'LL ALREADY
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING ON TUESDAY, AND THE BUILDING
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AXIS AND ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY, AND WILL PRECEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AS THE 50F ISODROSOTHERM HAS BEEN
THOROUGHLY SCOURED FAR INTO THE GULF BY SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
THE COMBINATION OF RESULTANT LOW RH VALUES, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS,
AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WILL CAUSE
THE FIRE THREAT TO BECOME ELEVATED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY WARMING TREND. HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. GREATER MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THE HIGHER RH VALUES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL LARGELY ELIMINATE ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WHILE THIS MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MORNING
STRATUS INTRUSIONS, IT WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WORKWEEK, WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH SET TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH OF MOISTURE
PRECEDING THIS FEATURE, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, AND POPS HAVE INCREASED TO 40-60% ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. THE SPEED
OF THIS TROUGH/LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND SOME GUIDANCE DOES
STILL SUPPORT A SLOWER CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION. THIS WOULD DELAY ITS
EASTWARD ADVANCE AND POSSIBLY ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY. WHILE MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE PRESENTLY
APPEARS UNSUPPORTIVE OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD ALSO CHANGE DEPENDING ON ALTERATIONS IN THE SYSTEM'S
SPEED AND TRAJECTORY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD FEATURE ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
AT 10 KTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING, AND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE EXTENDED DFW
TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 41 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 56 39 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 51 33 66 49 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 54 36 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 53 36 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 55 42 69 52 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 54 35 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 57 39 70 55 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 58 35 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 59 37 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
101>107-116>123-130>135-143>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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