180
FXUS64 KFWD 101729
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY COOL MONDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
70S AND 80S.
- AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE WEST OF I-35 ON
TUESDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
50S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 5-10
MPH. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR EAST TEXAS ZONES WHERE ISOLATED
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE LOW 30S. WARMER BUT
BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SCOURED FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY, CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
FALL TO 15-25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES,
LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY 15-20 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL RETURN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP ANY WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
WEST COAST TROUGH SWINGS TOWARDS THE AREA, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A
CUTOFF LOW AS IT MAKES ITS FINAL APPROACH. GULF MOISTURE WILL
RETURN RATHER RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE LEANING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD A SLOWER
CUT-OFF LOW SOLUTION, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WE'LL STICK
CLOSELY TO NBM FOR NOW GIVEN THERE'S STILL SOME LINGERING TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE LOW, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WE'LL HAVE TO WORK WITH. IF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR LATER (SUNDAY),
OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD INCREASE, AND THIS IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY RAIN CHANCES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS AOB 10
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY, WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS OR SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 41 70 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 39 69 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 33 66 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 36 70 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 36 68 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 42 69 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 35 68 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 39 70 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 35 70 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 37 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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