763
FXUS64 KFWD 110615
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 70S AND 80S.
- LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A VERY DRY AIRMASS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IS LEADING TO A NIGHT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, SAVE A FEW METROPLEX LOCATIONS, BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW LOW-LYING, RURAL AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.
A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
REINFORCE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH TO
DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH
MIXING TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S FORECASTED TO REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THUS, LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FWD CWA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE
REFRAIN FROM ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD LEAD TO
SPARKS AND NEW FIRE STARTS!
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN FULL SWING BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL RELAX BY
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETTLES OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS.
LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, MINUS
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
WARM AND QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS SETTLED
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO INCH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
RAINFALL IMPACTS MORE LIKELY IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHER NBM RAIN CHANCES (30-50%)
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT
IS ABLE TO OCCUR, AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH SPREAD IN
THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO PINPOINT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WE
WILL BE FINE TUNING THESE DETAILS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15-20
KTS BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30
KTS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 40 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 56 38 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 51 32 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 54 34 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 53 35 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 55 41 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 54 34 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 57 38 70 53 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 58 34 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 59 36 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page