287
FXUS64 KFWD 121130
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S AND 80S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20-40% RETURN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOME SETTLED OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
INCHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS
AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS MID TO UPPER 50S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS
VALLEY. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND GREATER HUMIDITY WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT VERY LOW DESPITE THE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH OUR NEXT
WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF I-35, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP BETTER QUALITY GULF
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GREATEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REINFORCE SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA PUSHING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NORTH
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECASTED ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL TOTALS UNFORTUNATELY REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER-
INCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SO ALL IN ALL, DON'T EXPECT A WASHOUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A
DRASTIC COOLDOWN ISN'T EXPECTED WITH THIS EARLY WEEK SYSTEM
EITHER. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE CURRENT SUITE OF ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS A MORE BROADSCALE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS.
FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. HAPPY FLYING AND SAFE TRAVELS!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 57 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 79 58 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 74 53 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 75 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 75 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 77 58 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 55 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 80 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 80 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 80 51 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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