992
FXUS64 KFWD 121830
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1230 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY ONWARD, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
IT'LL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
KEEP THE WARMING TREND GOING. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL PEAK IN THE 70S AND 80S. BETTER GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
BE PULLED NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BECOME ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH AN OVERNIGHT SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION IN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION GOING INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR
LOCAL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ANY WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK
RAIN CHANCES, AND ARE NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT
TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK. A CUT OFF LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL GRADUALLY EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS NOW
PLACED FURTHER TO OUR NORTH, LIMITING MUCH OF THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED RAIN CHANCES. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
TO OUR WEST TOWARDS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL ADVANCE EAST,
SHUNTING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE
MORE LIKELY WITH THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK FOR MORE DETAILS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AT
ALL TAF SITES, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED, OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS.
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL AID IN A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY BR IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AT D10 AIRPORTS REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MOS/NBM PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS
(AND LOWER) ARE GENERALLY ~20% OR LESS FOR THE TAF SITES, BUT THE
HREF AND SREF HAVE A MUCH STRONGER SIGNAL NEAR DAYBREAK. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST DAY OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN, GUIDANCE
HAVING LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, AND
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT, HAVE DECIDED TO FOREGO
PUTTING MVFR/LOWER CIGS IN THE D10 TAFS FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS IN D10 MAINLY
BETWEEN 12-17Z THURSDAY AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ACT HAS A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT, AND HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO
BETWEEN 12-16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 57 80 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 58 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 54 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 51 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 54 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 58 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 55 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 59 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 55 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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