377
FXUS64 KFWD 122335
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY ONWARD, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
IT'LL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
KEEP THE WARMING TREND GOING. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL PEAK IN THE 70S AND 80S. BETTER GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
BE PULLED NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BECOME ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH AN OVERNIGHT SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION IN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION GOING INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR
LOCAL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ANY WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK
RAIN CHANCES, AND ARE NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT
TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK. A CUT OFF LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL GRADUALLY EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS NOW
PLACED FURTHER TO OUR NORTH, LIMITING MUCH OF THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED RAIN CHANCES. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
TO OUR WEST TOWARDS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL ADVANCE EAST,
SHUNTING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE
MORE LIKELY WITH THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK FOR MORE DETAILS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RISE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW STRATUS OR PATCHY BR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AIRSPACE NEAR
DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CEILINGS IMPACTING THE D10 AIRPORTS REMAINS LOW
AS DETERMINISTIC AND MOS GUIDANCE KEEP PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS
BELOW 20%, AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS PATTERN IS NOT STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX,
HOWEVER A NARROW WINDOW FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS OR LIGHT BR BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 13-17Z CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND EXPECTED SHORT DURATION, THE D10 TAFS REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME
AND ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH AMENDMENTS.
AT KACT, DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORTS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT BR BETWEEN 11-15Z, SO THE
TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED HERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES. BEYOND THURSDAY MORNING,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 12-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 57 80 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 58 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 54 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 51 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 54 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 58 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 55 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 59 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 55 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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