925
FXUS64 KFWD 130618
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY ONWARD,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDING WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
BEYOND. MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TEXAS, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
A DRY AND WARM FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 DEGREES AT A FEW
LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35 BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY START TO MATERIALIZE WEST OF HIGHWAY
281 ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIX INTO THE LOW 50S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE EARLY WEEK DISTURBANCE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER, WEAKER, AND MORE NORTHWARD, THUS
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO LESS THAN 20% LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP, BROADSCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY
THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, THEREFORE WE HAVE INCLUDED
WIDESPREAD 40-50% RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
WE WILL MAINTAIN A MORE OPTIMISTIC, VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE D10 TERMINALS. LATEST MOS AND NBM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT <25% PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE 12Z-16Z TIMEFRAME OVER THE METROPLEX. MOST RECENT HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR/FG WITHIN THE METROPLEX THURSDAY MORNING, SO
WE WILL OPT TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. FUTURE AMDS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IN THE NIGHT IF CONDITIONS LOOK MORE CONDUCIVE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LOW
CIGS AND VSBYS AT KACT IS MORE LIKELY (40% CHANCE), SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SEVERAL HOUR TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR STRATUS THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 16Z-17Z THURSDAY WITH VFR
AND SOUTH WINDS AT 12-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS PREVAILING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 57 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 79 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 74 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 75 52 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 77 58 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 79 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 80 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 80 52 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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