039
FXUS64 KFWD 131142
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY ONWARD,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDING WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
BEYOND. MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TEXAS, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
A DRY AND WARM FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER RIDING MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 DEGREES AT A FEW
LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35 BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY START TO MATERIALIZE WEST OF HIGHWAY
281 ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIX INTO THE LOW 50S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE EARLY WEEK DISTURBANCE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER, WEAKER, AND MORE NORTHWARD, THUS
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO LESS THAN 20% LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP, BROADSCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY
THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, THEREFORE WE HAVE INCLUDED
WIDESPREAD 40-50% RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING AND
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. PATCHY FOG (SOME DENSE) HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE MVFR CIGS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KACT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) THAT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OCCUR. THESE CIGS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
D10 AIRSPACE, BUT INTERMITTENT FEW TO SCT CIGS NEAR 2KFT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 13Z.
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR ON THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE DFW METROPLEX. NOT EXPECTING ANY
IMPACTS TO THE D10 TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT. ANY LINGERING FOG/LOW
CIGS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 16Z-17Z LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 62 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 81 61 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 80 60 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 80 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 80 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 64 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 81 60 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 82 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 82 59 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 85 58 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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