689
FXUS64 KFWD 140000
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXPECTED.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY ONWARD. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DICTATE OUR REGIONAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, KEEPING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ABNORMALLY WARM AND RAIN-FREE. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABLE
TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH ABUNDANT SUN AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THE REGION REMAINING PLANTED ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF INCREASED GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHY, SOMETIMES
DENSE, FOG. BEST CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN BE IN
CENTRAL TEXAS, LIKE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, INCREASED NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND 24 HOURS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING PUMPED
INTO THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF FOGGY AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON FRIDAY. ANY STRATUS OR FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS, MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW, LEADING TO STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS OVER THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD TROUGHING WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
ONSHORE THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS WE NEAR MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO KEEP THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS LIFT REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTH,
AND WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR OUR REGIONAL WEATHER.
A DEEPER, STOUTER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS EASTWARD
TOWARD MIDWEEK, BUT WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
SPREAD STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
MIDWEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE
1.5", WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM VALUE (ACCORDING TO
SPC'S SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY)AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WOULD
PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST GEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE BOTH
SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BOTTOM LINE: IT IS TOO EARLY TO GO INTO ANY SPECIFICS
REGARDING RAIN AMOUNTS OR SEVERE RISKS AND THREATS, BUT MAKE SURE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK AS MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE THE CLOSER WE GET
TO THE TIME IN QUESTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS TO THE D10 TERMINALS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WHILE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 11-15Z,
THE SATURATED LAYER ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LOWER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT MORE
WIDESPREAD CEILING DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THESE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTIES, THE D10 TAFS RETAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A
MODEST INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK. ANY STRATUS THAT
DOES DEVELOP WOULD BE BRIEF.
AT KACT, DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE MOST FAVORED
PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. ALL
TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS (18015G25KT) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING SPEEDS BY THE EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 62 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 60 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 58 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 60 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 63 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 60 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 62 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 59 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 57 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...12
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