519
FXUS64 KFWD 140640
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXPECTED.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY ONWARD. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY THANKS TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL RIDING REMAINS STRONG
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, KEEPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW
CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTH, GENERALLY EAST OF I-35.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW LOW-LYING SPOTS ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY MAY
EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE, QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY THE
MID-MORNING HOURS.
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE, EXPECT TODAY'S HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S
THROUGHOUT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON, RANGING BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS
WEST OF I-35 MAY HIT 90 DEGREES AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ENHANCE
AFTERNOON WARMING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BEGINS TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH NORTH TEXAS,
HOWEVER, GIVEN NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD BY THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
SHED A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER; FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, LOWER TO MID 80S
WILL CONTINUE.
AS WE MOVE INTO A NEW WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE ATOP THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON JUST HOW MUCH
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SUPPLYING A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. PWATS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE AS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INCHES CLOSER TO OUR REGION. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
LEADING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRECEDE THE PARENT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. GIVEN THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVING OVERHEAD, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINLY WHEN ITS COMES TO TIMING, INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPS AND IMPACTS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES. FOR
NORTH TEXAS, THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE ON AND OFF. THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THAT THE MVFR DECK WILL
IMPACT KACT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
AS THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. AS THE SUN SETS, WINDS WILL
RETURN TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH NO WIND SHIFT OR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 82 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 81 62 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 82 57 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 82 60 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 82 62 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 82 60 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 84 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 83 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 86 57 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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