499
FXUS64 KFWD 161140
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
DURING THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT
WILL NOT BRING US RAIN CHANCES TODAY, IT WILL KNOCK OFF A FEW
DEGREES FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
TODAY'S HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH MID 80S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR IN PLACE, THE "COOL" SHALLOW AIR
WILL MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE 50S WEST OF I-35 AND 60S ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
OUR WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END NEXT WEEK
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS LEAD TO PERIODS OF ENHANCED FORCING
FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MISS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
COMPLETELY AS IT LIFTS FROM ARIZONA TO COLORADO AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION, THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS COLORADO AND A NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS OUR REGION. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10%.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS, INCREASING IT'S
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS
TIME MOVING EASTWARD, THUS, PLACING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF ASCENT TO MOVE OVERHEAD.
THE FIRST WAVE OF STRONGER ASCENT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 40-60% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AROUND 1500 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
INCHES CLOSER TO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THEN MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, THE PARAMETER-
SPACE DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, HOWEVER, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR AS THE LOWER-LEVELS RESPOND TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH THURSDAY'S PRECIPITATION. WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB, THUNDERSTORM
TRAINING WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THOSE HEAVY PRECIPITATION BANDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THIS FAR OUT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4". GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS, A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP MORE
THAN 4" OF RAIN BY FRIDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY, IT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BY NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH OUR REGION AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAKE SURE TO STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE MIDWEEK OR WEEKEND PLANS!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, HOWEVER
A SHROUD OF MVFR CIGS IS ONGOING JUST SOUTHEAST OF KACT. GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE REDUCED CEILING HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE CLOUDS TO SHIFT NORTH, A TEMPO OF BKN015 WILL CONTINUE FOR
KACT THROUGH 13Z.
BEYOND 13Z, WE'LL MONITOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 14-16Z. THE FRONT
WILL REACH KACT CLOSER TO 20Z. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
SHORTLIVED AS WINDS RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CEILING HEIGHTS MAY BECOME A CONCERN JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
TAF'S VALID PERIOD FOR BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR WILL IMPACT KACT CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY
AS ANOTHER SWATH OF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD. MORE DETAILS TO
COME IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 63 85 67 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 85 65 85 68 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 81 63 82 66 / 0 10 10 10
DENTON 79 58 85 64 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 82 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 82 65 86 68 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 83 63 85 66 / 0 10 0 10
CORSICANA 87 67 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 87 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 84 56 91 63 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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