449
FXUS64 KFWD 170752
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
152 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH DFW
AND WACO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR FLOODING
DURING THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WARMING THE AIR PARCELS INTO
ANOMALOUS HIGH LEVELS.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY (MID 80S) FALL JUST SHY OF RECORD VALUES AT
BOTH DFW (87F) AND WACO (89F), BUT STILL REPRESENT NEAR RECORD
HEAT FOR MID-NOVEMBER. ON TUESDAY, SIMILAR WARMING PROCESSES
PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, HOWEVER, DAILY RECORDS ARE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER. FOR DFW, THE RECORD IS 83F WHILE WACO'S RECORD
STANDS AT 84F. FORECAST HIGHS FOR BOTH SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
86F AND 82F RESPECTIVELY.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED, MOISTURE
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR RAIN TO OCCUR
PRIOR TO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST COAST AS ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD, IT WILL INITIATE A SHIFT TO MORE BACKED SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION, ENHANCING GULF MOISTURE RETURN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS MID-WEEK AS THE WESTERN US
TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TIMING
DIFFERENCES -- PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE FASTER ENS AND THE SLOWER
GEFS. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE ENS, WHICH IN TURN IMPACTS HOW MUCH RAINFALL
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RECEIVES THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING DISCREPANCIES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRIOR TO THE MAIN RAIN EVENT ON THURSDAY, WEDNESDAY'S RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
INCREASE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCER. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW ON
WEDNESDAY GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH
20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF A MORE ROBUST STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE MORE IMPACTFUL DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WILL MAXIMIZE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT WILL MIGRATE FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REACHING IT'S MAXIMUM STRENGTH BY THE AFTERNOON,
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE MAIN ELEMENT IN QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER. AS OF NOW,
INSTABILITY APPEARS LOWER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN 800 J/KG. NONETHELESS, GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN WITH A LOW BUT NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
THAT WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING THREAT. A GRADUAL TAPERING OF
TOTAL EXPECTED RAINFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SEVERAL PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLES AS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ENS IS BECOMING THE MOST
FAVORED SOLUTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN
2-3", WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS APPROACHING 4".
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEINGS TO MOVE CLOSER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM, THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO COME BACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE GREATEST IMPACTED TAF SITE WILL BE WACO THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS TWO WAVES OF LOW CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
INITIAL WAVE OF MVFR WILL IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF WACO, REACHING KACT BY 10-11Z. THE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE VFR RETURNS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE OF MVFR RETURNING BY 06Z TUESDAY.
FOR ALL OF THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES, THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KDAL AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS EASTERN D10. THE MVFR
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS, LEAVING BEHIND
VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SIMILAR TO THE WACO, MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CLOSER TO 06Z. THIS CHANGE IN FLIGHT
RESTRICTION CATEGORY WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCES.
ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILING POTENTIAL, NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN WIND ARE
EXPECTED WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 67 86 66 / 0 10 0 0
WACO 85 69 82 67 / 0 10 10 10
PARIS 81 68 84 64 / 10 10 0 0
DENTON 86 64 86 61 / 0 10 0 10
MCKINNEY 84 67 86 63 / 0 10 0 0
DALLAS 86 69 87 67 / 0 10 0 0
TERRELL 84 68 85 64 / 0 10 10 0
CORSICANA 86 70 85 67 / 0 10 10 0
TEMPLE 86 67 84 65 / 0 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 92 62 90 62 / 0 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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