450
FXUS64 KFWD 171937
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
137 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH DFW
AND WACO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR FLOODING
DURING THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A BROAD, GRADUALLY FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL FOSTER CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
TWO MORNINGS, WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD STEADILY SCATTER OUT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AS SOLAR INSOLATION AND MECHANICAL MIXING ENSUE. THIS
WILL YIELD ANOTHER SUNNY AND NOTICEABLY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TUESDAY, WITH LOWER 90S COMMON ACROSS MANY OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AND LOWER HUMIDITIES. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
DFW, WACO, AND PROBABLY ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE THREATENED
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY, WITH ANY
LUCK, TUESDAY'S READINGS WILL REPRESENT THE HIGH WATER MARK FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FALL AND WINTER (FAMOUS LAST WORDS!)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. FEW CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, AS
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM STILL SUGGESTS AN ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FAIRLY SCATTERED AND LIGHT, DRIVEN BASICALLY BY MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITHIN A PARTIALLY MOISTENED ENVIRONMENT. MORE PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REGION OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO, WILL PROMOTE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE EURO AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
ARE DAMPENING THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SENDING MOST OF
ITS ASSOCIATED STRONGEST LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA INTO KANSAS
BY FRIDAY, WE'LL STILL RECEIVE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING AROUND
HERE TO FACILITATE MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO DEPICT
THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REALLY COMMENCE IN EARNEST BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (MAINLY NORTH OF I-20)
ULTIMATELY TOPPING OUT AROUND 200-250% OF NORMAL BY LATE THURSDAY.
THESE PWS AMOUNTS REPRESENT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR
NOVEMBER, AUGURING WELL FOR A WIDESPREAD, HEALTHY RAIN EVENT.
GOOD CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED AND FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MIGHT
TEND TO LIMIT HIGHER END RAIN TOTALS, THE EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH
PWS RESIDENT OVER THE AREA ENGENDER SERIOUS RESPECT. THIS BEING
THE CASE, STILL BELIEVE SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH MOST OF THIS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN I-20
AND THE RED RIVER AFTER NOON ON THURSDAY. A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT DEFINITELY REMAINS IN THE CARDS FOR THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND A WATCH MAY BE NECESSITATED AS LATER
MODEL RUNS BRING MORE GRANULARITY INTO THE RAINFALL FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH THIS EVENT, BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SOME EURO AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES EVOLVING
OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY, THOUGH THE DEGREE OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
IS UNCLEAR. IF ANY SHORT, INTENSE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE ABLE TO
ESTABLISH THEMSELVES ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, A LIMITED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD ENSUE. AGAIN, MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST SHOULD OCCUR WITH LATER RUNS.
THE PRIMARY RAIN EVENT WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD WRAP UP IN
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE'LL SEE COOLER
CONDITIONS AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON THE
WHOLE, VERSUS THOSE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING DAILY TRENDS WITH THIS PATTERN.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z TONIGHT, BUT
AFTER THAT POINT, WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER STRATUS SHIELD PUSH
NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS, EVENTUALLY REACHING D10 BY AROUND
10Z OR THEREABOUTS. EXPECT AT LEAST LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO AFFECT
WACO STARTING AT 09Z, AND MOST OF THE D10 TERMINALS, INCLUDING
DFW, BY 10Z. LIKELY TO SEE LIFR CEILINGS AT DAL FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND A GOOD CHANCE OF THESE CONDITIONS AT
DFW AS WELL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO MORNINGS, THESE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING AS SOLAR
INSOLATION AND BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZES ENSUE.
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES, FACILITATED BY A LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WILL
FOSTER CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
TUESDAY, GUSTING AT TIMES IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 86 66 82 / 10 0 0 30
WACO 70 83 66 82 / 10 10 0 30
PARIS 68 85 64 83 / 20 0 0 30
DENTON 63 86 61 81 / 10 0 0 40
MCKINNEY 68 86 63 82 / 10 0 0 30
DALLAS 69 87 66 83 / 10 0 0 30
TERRELL 68 85 64 83 / 10 10 0 30
CORSICANA 71 85 67 83 / 10 10 0 30
TEMPLE 68 83 64 83 / 10 10 10 40
MINERAL WELLS 62 90 61 85 / 0 0 10 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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