738
FXUS64 KFWD 191147
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER TODAY. INITIAL STORMS IN OUR
NORTHEAST WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS FRONT
IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS
AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO RACE OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST CONUS. OTHERWISE, WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, EXPECT MORNING
LOWS TO ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
THE CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR MIDWEEK PATTERN SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS WE GO THROUGH
TODAY. AS THIS LOW GETS CLOSER, THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK NORTHWARD, WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST. OVER
THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED WARM-ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP, BUT MORE FOCUSED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT
AND DRYLINE IN OUR WEST/NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING.
THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE MORE DISCRETE IN NATURE, AND WOULD
HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE > 7 DEGC/KM LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THESE INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS
IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, OWING TO LESS CONDUCIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND SOME INCREASED SURFACE CIN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE TWO FACTORS TO WATCH: 1. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND 2. IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE BACKED COMPARED TO THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. IF THESE THINGS OCCUR DURING THE TIME OF THE MORE
SUPERCELLULAR STORMS, THIS COULD LOCALLY INCREASE THE TORNADO
THREAT. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
SPREADING INCREASED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH STORM MODE
WOULD BE A BIT MESSIER WITH LINES AND CLUSTERS EXPECTED. THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR THURSDAY IS ON THE LOWER END OWING TO A
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY BETTER ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
OR BOWING SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE BIGGEST THREAT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
HYDROLOGIC ONE AS PWATS > 1.5" AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS TIME. FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS, AND/OR ARE IN FLOOD PRONE, LOW-LYING
SPOTS. IN TOTAL, MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE
A WIDESPREAD 1-2" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4".
THE LOW WILL FINALLY SWING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY,
SHUNTING THE PACIFIC FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES FURTHER
EAST/SOUTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A GENERAL END TO THIS
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER
THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
BEHIND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT, WE'LL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO KICK
OFF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY RETURN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS ATOP THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO SWING NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WE END THE WEEKEND AND GO INTO NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. EXACT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME, AS WELL AS ANY SPECIFICS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
OR FLOODING. CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AS
MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.
OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD ACT THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. WHILE THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL THAT THEY WILL MAKE
IT TO D10 BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE 16-19Z TIMEFRAME WHERE PROBABILITIES OF CIGS INCREASE. OUT
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO
SPOTTY AND UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER
CHANCES FOR TERMINAL IMPACTS WILL BE AFTER 05Z WHEN SHOWERS SPREAD
FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN BETWEEN WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING HOURS (CURRENTLY HAVE IT BEGINNING
AT 13Z), BUT EXACT TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND MAY CHANGE
IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES. FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR NEAR THE END OF THE 30 HOUR EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD. BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD (AFTER 18Z THURSDAY),
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND DISMAL MVFR OR LOWER
CIGS ARE EXPECTED, BUT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 67 75 61 / 10 80 90 90
WACO 82 68 75 62 / 30 70 80 80
PARIS 82 66 75 61 / 10 70 80 90
DENTON 82 63 74 56 / 20 80 90 80
MCKINNEY 83 66 75 61 / 10 80 90 90
DALLAS 84 67 75 62 / 10 80 90 90
TERRELL 83 66 76 62 / 10 70 80 90
CORSICANA 84 69 79 65 / 20 70 70 80
TEMPLE 82 67 77 61 / 30 60 80 80
MINERAL WELLS 85 64 76 56 / 40 80 90 80
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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