119
FXUS64 KFWD 191748
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1148 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (20-30% COVERAGE) RETURN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL HAVE A LOW
SEVERE THREAT.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, THEN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE BOTH
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A RELATIVELY ACTIVE 48-HOUR STRETCH,
CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING, MAINLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO A LOW SEVERE THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS LOW, ESPECIALLY FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT A
WELL-DEFINED SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT (I.E. A STRONG COLD FRONT
OR DRYLINE), THE MODELS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCURATELY CAPTURE EACH
ROUND. WE HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE REGARDING TOMORROW'S
FORECAST SINCE THE FORCING WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT THERE IS
STILL WIGGLE ROOM REGARDING THE SPECIFICS.
A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE ARE
STILL DISCUSSING THE EXACT LOCATIONS THAT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE WATCH. BASICALLY, WE'RE MULLING OVER IF WE SHOULD ONLY INCLUDE
WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE OF RECEIVING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN, OR IF WE SHOULD EXPAND IT ALL THE WAY
INTO EAST TEXAS WHERE SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER
BULLSEYE OF HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
SYNOPTIC SETUP...
- A DEEP MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS STARTING TO
EJECT EAST OVER THE SW PART OF THE CONUS. THIS IS RESULTING IN
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WE HAVE BEEN IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME, SO PLENTY OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION TO "PRIME THE PUMP." WHEN
TRANSIENT LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH, THEY WILL BE
ABLE TO READILY TAP INTO THE FAVORABLE LOW- LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
DEVELOP SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE
A COUPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OUT THERE TO MENTION. A WEAK FRONT
STALLED TO OUR NORTH IN OKLAHOMA AND A DRYLINE IN FAR WEST
TEXAS. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEREFORE NOT BE A
MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
- WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE
NEBULOUS FORCING AND THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT (FOR NOW),
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL JUST BE SHOWERS
WITH A LOW THREAT OF LIGHTNING. THINGS CHANGE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS RAMP UP ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME
THIS EVENING WHEN WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELL
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THERE IS A
NON-ZERO THREAT OF A TORNADO IN CENTRAL TEXAS IF A SUPERCELL
DEVELOPS, BUT THE LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELD IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE, SO
WE'D NEED THINGS TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT TO MATERIALIZE A TORNADO
THREAT FOR JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
- THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WE GENERALLY EXPECT MOST OF THE
STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS IS STILL LARGELY UNKNOWN, EVEN AT THIS TIME.
THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MESSY, WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS
THAT DON'T SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, THE
DISORGANIZED NATURE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING IF
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE MORNING
GUIDANCE IS STILL DISPERSIVE (SOME HAVE A RAIN BULLSEYE OVER SW
OKLAHOMA, SOME HAVE IT SE OF THE METROPLEX), AND ALTHOUGH WE'RE
NOT CONFIDENT WHERE THIS WILL BE...WE ARE CONFIDENT IN SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS FIRST
ROUND. SOME SPOTS IN OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, AND MOST OF THE
AREA CAN EXPECT BETWEEN ~0.25-0.75" OF RAIN.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
- AS TOMORROW MORNING'S ROUND OF ACTIVITY MOVES EAST IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, ROUND TWO WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY. EXPECT A BROKEN LINE/CLUSTER OF
STORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA IN THE MID-AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH/EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
TOMORROW, SO WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND OCCURRING.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR RAIN TOTALS FOR
TOMORROW'S EVENT, BUT A FEW HAVE A RAIN BULLSEYE UP TO 4". ANY
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE OVERLAP BETWEEN TONIGHT'S AND TOMORROW'S
HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE FLASH FLOODING, WHILE
THE REMAINING AREAS (I.E. MOST OF THE AREA) THAT RECEIVES ONLY
ONE ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE A THREAT OF URBAN FLASH
FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.
- SIMILAR TO TODAY, THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WIND FIELD/SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY DO TODAY, BUT INSTABILITY
IS LACKING. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
THE HELP OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF TIME THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER (MAINLY A
LOW TORNADO THREAT) ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE/CLUSTER.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE DRYLINE (OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT IF YOU CHOOSE)
BRIEFLY ALLUDED TO ABOVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, SO EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS, FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY
NICE DAY WITH MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SATURDAY TO BE
AN EVEN BETTER WEATHER DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE NICE WEATHER COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN ANOTHER DEEP MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONCE THIS OCCURS, ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS
(EXACT PRECIP LOCATIONS/RAIN AMOUNTS, SURFACE FEATURES, ETC.) THAT
WILL BE CONSEQUENTIAL TO THE FINAL FORECAST/IMPACTS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE STILL IN THE "BE AWARE" STAGE OF THIS EVENT.
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE SOILS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO FLOODING
WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH EVEN LESS RAINFALL. I'D
CAUTION AGAINST LOOKING AT ANY SINGLE MODEL'S RAIN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME SINCE THE EXACT AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE/IF
SURFACE FEATURES DEVELOP IN OUR AREA. IF WE WERE TO HAVE A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOP NEARBY, WE'D HAVE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. IF THERE IS NO
SURFACE LOW IN THE AREA, WE'D HAVE LESS. TIME WILL TELL, BUT
STAKEHOLDERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON IT. WE'LL BE MONITORING IT
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ONCE WE GET PAST THIS FIRST SYSTEM.
BONNETTE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS. SOUTH FLOW AND ILS CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.
PRECIP COVERAGE DISCUSSIONS:
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL MAINLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED POPUP
SHOWERS, WITH A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
IN THE ACT TAF FOR THIS ACTIVITY, BUT THERE IS ALSO A 20-30%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE D10 TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH A 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 06Z.
TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE REGION, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING WHERE IT
WILL BE IS STILL QUITE LOW. WE INCLUDED A -SHRA VCTS LINE IN ALL
TAFS IN EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, BUT THE TIMING OF THIS COULD
BE MOVED UP OR BACK BY SEVERAL HOURS.
TOMORROW...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AT THE TAF SITES IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER (AND MORE
ROBUST) LINE MOVES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
ONSET TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO
TOMORROW EVENING. DUE TO THIS, WE ONLY INCLUDED -SHRA/VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF, BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL DETAILS TO BE INCLUDED IN
FUTURE TAFS.
BONNETTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 67 75 61 / 10 80 90 90
WACO 82 68 75 62 / 30 70 80 80
PARIS 82 66 75 61 / 10 70 80 90
DENTON 82 63 74 56 / 20 80 90 80
MCKINNEY 83 66 75 61 / 10 80 90 90
DALLAS 84 67 75 62 / 10 80 90 90
TERRELL 83 66 76 62 / 10 70 80 90
CORSICANA 84 69 79 65 / 20 70 70 80
TEMPLE 82 67 77 61 / 30 60 80 80
MINERAL WELLS 85 64 76 56 / 40 80 90 80
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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