368
FXUS64 KFWD 200007
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
607 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%) ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH A
LOW SEVERE THREAT.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, THEN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE BOTH
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
WITH THIS EVENING'S UPDATE, OTHER THAN SLIGHT POP REFINEMENTS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH/WEST OF OUR AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW ATTEMPTS HAVE GONE
UP MAINLY WEST OF 281 IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, BUT OTHERWISE IT
HAS REMAINED QUIET ACROSS THE AREA. THE APPROACHING LARGER SCALE
LIFT IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST, AND WILL SLOWLY START TO IMPINGE ON
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT ~1500-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM STILL THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE
LACK OF FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS QUIET. IF A STORM CAN
ESTABLISH ITSELF, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING
UPDRAFTS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. OTHERWISE, AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION STARTS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
MAY BE REALIZED, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE. A
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE OF
THIS IS QUITE LOW. OTHERWISE, FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A RELATIVELY ACTIVE 48-HOUR STRETCH,
CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING, MAINLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TOMORROW. THERE IS ALSO A LOW SEVERE THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS LOW, ESPECIALLY FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT A
WELL-DEFINED SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT (I.E. A STRONG COLD FRONT
OR DRYLINE), THE MODELS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCURATELY CAPTURE EACH
ROUND. WE HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE REGARDING TOMORROW'S
FORECAST SINCE THE FORCING WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT THERE IS
STILL WIGGLE ROOM REGARDING THE SPECIFICS.
SYNOPTIC SETUP...
- A DEEP MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS STARTING TO
EJECT EAST OVER THE SW PART OF THE CONUS. THIS IS RESULTING IN
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WE HAVE BEEN IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME, SO PLENTY OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION TO "PRIME THE PUMP." WHEN
TRANSIENT LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH, THEY WILL BE
ABLE TO READILY TAP INTO THE FAVORABLE LOW- LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
DEVELOP SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE
A COUPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OUT THERE TO MENTION. A WEAK FRONT
STALLED TO OUR NORTH IN OKLAHOMA AND A DRYLINE IN FAR WEST
TEXAS. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEREFORE NOT BE A
MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
- THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WE GENERALLY EXPECT MOST OF THE
STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS IS STILL LARGELY UNKNOWN, EVEN AT THIS TIME.
THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MESSY, WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS
THAT DON'T SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, THE
DISORGANIZED NATURE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING IF
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE MORNING
GUIDANCE IS STILL DISPERSIVE (SOME HAVE A RAIN BULLSEYE OVER SW
OKLAHOMA, SOME HAVE IT SE OF THE METROPLEX), AND ALTHOUGH WE'RE
NOT CONFIDENT WHERE THIS WILL BE...WE ARE CONFIDENT IN SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS FIRST
ROUND. SOME SPOTS IN OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, AND MOST OF THE
AREA CAN EXPECT BETWEEN ~0.25-0.75" OF RAIN.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
- AS TOMORROW MORNING'S ROUND OF ACTIVITY MOVES EAST IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, ROUND TWO WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY. EXPECT A BROKEN LINE/CLUSTER OF
STORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA IN THE MID-AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH/EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
TOMORROW, SO WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND OCCURRING.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR RAIN TOTALS FOR
TOMORROW'S EVENT, BUT A FEW HAVE A RAIN BULLSEYE UP TO 4". ANY
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE OVERLAP BETWEEN TONIGHT'S AND TOMORROW'S
HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE FLASH FLOODING, WHILE
THE REMAINING AREAS (I.E. MOST OF THE AREA) THAT RECEIVES ONLY
ONE ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE A THREAT OF URBAN FLASH
FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.
- SIMILAR TO TODAY, THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WIND FIELD/SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY DO TODAY, BUT INSTABILITY
IS LACKING. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
THE HELP OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF TIME THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER (MAINLY A
LOW TORNADO THREAT) ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE/CLUSTER.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE DRYLINE (OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT IF YOU CHOOSE)
BRIEFLY ALLUDED TO ABOVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, SO EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS, FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY
NICE DAY WITH MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SATURDAY TO BE
AN EVEN BETTER WEATHER DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE NICE WEATHER COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN ANOTHER DEEP MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONCE THIS OCCURS, ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS
(EXACT PRECIP LOCATIONS/RAIN AMOUNTS, SURFACE FEATURES, ETC.) THAT
WILL BE CONSEQUENTIAL TO THE FINAL FORECAST/IMPACTS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE STILL IN THE "BE AWARE" STAGE OF THIS EVENT.
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE SOILS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO FLOODING
WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH EVEN LESS RAINFALL. I'D
CAUTION AGAINST LOOKING AT ANY SINGLE MODEL'S RAIN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME SINCE THE EXACT AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE/IF
SURFACE FEATURES DEVELOP IN OUR AREA. IF WE WERE TO HAVE A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOP NEARBY, WE'D HAVE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. IF THERE IS NO
SURFACE LOW IN THE AREA, WE'D HAVE LESS. TIME WILL TELL, BUT
STAKEHOLDERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON IT. WE'LL BE MONITORING IT
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ONCE WE GET PAST THIS FIRST SYSTEM.
BONNETTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS. FOR THE FIRST ROUND,
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE BEST
THUNDER CHANCES STILL AROUND 09-13Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE DFW SITES FROM 09-12Z WHEN IT IS MOST LIKELY
FOR IMPACTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE D10 SITES, AT WHICH POINT THE IMPACTS
WOULD BE MORE SHRA WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER. WILL CONTINUE
TO REFINE TRENDS WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES. FOR WACO OVERNIGHT, THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN IMPACTS TO THE AIRPORT, SO THE VCTS HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED FROM 10-13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THE FIRST ROUND, WITH MVFR
LINGERING AT ACT THROUGH MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SHRA/VCTS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AT THE VERY END OF WACO'S
TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THIS ROUND'S
TIMING/INTENSITY IS FAIRLY LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 76 60 77 / 80 90 90 20
WACO 68 77 63 77 / 80 80 90 40
PARIS 66 74 61 75 / 80 70 90 20
DENTON 64 75 56 76 / 80 90 90 10
MCKINNEY 67 75 60 76 / 80 90 90 20
DALLAS 68 76 62 77 / 80 90 90 20
TERRELL 67 78 61 78 / 80 80 90 30
CORSICANA 69 80 64 79 / 70 70 90 40
TEMPLE 67 78 61 78 / 70 70 90 40
MINERAL WELLS 64 76 55 78 / 80 90 80 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ141>144-156>159.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...GORDON
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