451
FXUS64 KFWD 200750
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
150 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE BOTH ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
WHILE THE PARENT CLOSED LOW OF OUR MID-LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM
REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO (SPECIFICALLY BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SONORA), MINUTE SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT AHEAD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE SPREADING ENOUGH LIFT TO PROMOTE SW-NE
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AS OF MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR CWA WITH THIS FIRST WAVE. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS WAVE IS LOW, HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY MORE ROBUST STORM THAT IS
ABLE TO OVER-PERFORM. THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS OUR LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE.
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
REST OF TODAY, CONTINUING TO SPREAD INCREASED LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST ALONG THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, FAVORED
STORM MODE WILL BE MESSY CLUSTERS AND LINES. OVER THE COURSE OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PACIFIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WILL BE USHERED EAST AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES. ADDITIONALLY, SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
CURRENTLY LOW, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MORE CLOSELY WATCHED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, TRAINING CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S WAVE WILL
INCREASE THE EXPECTED FLOODING THREAT. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE
FOR AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY OF THE ONGOING
(EARLY-MID MORNING) ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS ANY LOW-LYING OR FLOOD-
PRONE SPOTS. ALL IN ALL, THOSE THAT RECEIVE BOTH WAVES OF STORMS
AND/OR TRAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2"
WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4". THOSE THAT SEE MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS,
RESPECTIVELY. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT MAY NEED BE
EXPANDED IN AREA TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING.
THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF OUR EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE SYSTEM'S
TRUE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BREACH OUR RED RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE
70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S. TO OUR WEST, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL SWING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, SIGNIFYING ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EXACT RAIN AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS, AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW PUSHING THIS
SURFACE FEATURE FURTHER NORTH (WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOWER RAINFALL
TOTALS), COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT HAD THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVERTOP NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS (HAD HIGHER FORECAST
TOTALS). THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK
WHEN HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BEGINS TO PICK THIS TIME PERIOD
UP. SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ABOVE, THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME MIDWEEK AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TO BE THANKFUL FOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE D10
AIRPORTS, BUT WILL LIKELY SKIRT NORTH AND WEST OF ACT THIS
MORNING. WITHIN ANY STORM, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VIS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL OR ERRATIC,
GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ACT NEAR
DAYBREAK. AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, THERE WILL BE A LULL AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF IMPROVED FLYING
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES OVER THE
AIRPORTS BEGINNING AT 22/23Z, AND WILL LAST THROUGH 04/05Z, WITH
MVFR CIGS QUICKLY RETURNING AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 62 77 53 / 90 90 20 0
WACO 78 63 77 53 / 80 90 40 10
PARIS 75 62 75 50 / 90 90 30 0
DENTON 74 57 75 47 / 90 80 20 0
MCKINNEY 75 61 76 50 / 90 90 20 0
DALLAS 76 63 77 54 / 90 90 30 0
TERRELL 78 63 78 51 / 80 90 40 10
CORSICANA 81 66 79 55 / 60 80 50 10
TEMPLE 79 62 79 53 / 70 80 50 10
MINERAL WELLS 76 56 79 47 / 90 80 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ141>144-156>159.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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