327
FXUS64 KFWD 201200
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR ON AND OFF THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE BOTH ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO REFINE
POPS FROM LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS, AS WELL AS EXPANDING
THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS UP TO AROUND THE US-380 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS ROUND
OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE REST
OF THIS MORNING, WITH ANOTHER LATE-MORNING ROUND ALREADY
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
OCCUR IN THE MORE ROBUST STORMS, WITH OBSERVATION SITES AROUND THE
DFW METROPLEX TOWARDS THE RED RIVER OBSERVING ~1-2.5" OF RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS THANKS TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FLASH
FLOODING AS OUR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA TO KEEP AN
EYE ON FOR THE LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAVE
REMAINED UNSCATHED FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION AND WILL NOT BE
AS WORKED OVER. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
WHILE THE PARENT CLOSED LOW OF OUR MID-LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM
REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO (SPECIFICALLY BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SONORA), MINUTE SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT AHEAD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE SPREADING ENOUGH LIFT TO PROMOTE SW-NE
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AS OF MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR CWA WITH THIS FIRST WAVE. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS WAVE IS LOW, HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY MORE ROBUST STORM THAT IS
ABLE TO OVER-PERFORM. THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS OUR LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE.
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
REST OF TODAY, CONTINUING TO SPREAD INCREASED LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST ALONG THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, FAVORED
STORM MODE WILL BE MESSY CLUSTERS AND LINES. OVER THE COURSE OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PACIFIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WILL BE USHERED EAST AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES. ADDITIONALLY, SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
CURRENTLY LOW, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MORE CLOSELY WATCHED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, TRAINING CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S WAVE WILL
INCREASE THE EXPECTED FLOODING THREAT. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE
FOR AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY OF THE ONGOING
(EARLY-MID MORNING) ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS ANY LOW-LYING OR FLOOD-
PRONE SPOTS. ALL IN ALL, THOSE THAT RECEIVE BOTH WAVES OF STORMS
AND/OR TRAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2"
WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4". THOSE THAT SEE MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS,
RESPECTIVELY. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT MAY NEED BE
EXPANDED IN AREA TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING.
THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF OUR EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE SYSTEM'S
TRUE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BREACH OUR RED RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE
70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S. TO OUR WEST, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL SWING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, SIGNIFYING ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EXACT RAIN AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS, AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW PUSHING THIS
SURFACE FEATURE FURTHER NORTH (WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOWER RAINFALL
TOTALS), COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT HAD THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVERTOP NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS (HAD HIGHER FORECAST
TOTALS). THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK
WHEN HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BEGINS TO PICK THIS TIME PERIOD
UP. SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ABOVE, THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME MIDWEEK AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TO BE THANKFUL FOR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
D10: THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS HAS EXITED D10, WITH VFR
TEMPORARILY RETURNING. THE NEXT MORNING WAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
THE D10 AIRPORTS BETWEEN 14-1430Z, AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS OF ON AND OFF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN,
ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. EXPECT ANOTHER LULL
IN PRECIPITATION AND IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH OF THE SAME IMPACTS AS ABOVE. ONCE THE LINE EXITS D10
LATE TONIGHT (04Z), EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
ACT: ACT HAS ESCAPED THE MORNING CONVECTION, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
OBSERVE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THEY LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND NOON. ACT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ROUND OF
STORMS, WITH GREATEST IMPACT BETWEEN 22-02Z THIS EVENING WHERE
HEAVY RAIN, ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED. ONCE THE LINE EXITS D10 LATE TONIGHT (04Z), EXPECT
DETERIORATING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 62 77 53 / 90 90 20 0
WACO 78 63 77 53 / 80 80 40 10
PARIS 75 62 75 50 / 90 90 30 0
DENTON 74 57 75 47 / 90 80 20 0
MCKINNEY 75 61 76 50 / 90 90 20 0
DALLAS 76 63 77 54 / 90 90 30 0
TERRELL 77 63 78 51 / 80 80 40 10
CORSICANA 80 66 79 55 / 60 80 50 10
TEMPLE 79 62 79 53 / 70 80 50 10
MINERAL WELLS 74 56 79 47 / 90 80 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ102>105-117>121-130>134-
141>146-156>159.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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