893
FXUS64 KFWD 201919
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
119 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN. CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
CENTRAL TX, MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP FIRST AHEAD OF A
MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER/BROKEN LINE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY 4-5PM.
THE MAIN HAZARD FOR NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT OR THIS MORNING.
REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT IS FAIRLY WORKED
OVER FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION.
FOR CENTRAL TEXAS, WE'RE STILL MONITORING THE LOW/CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. IF
THESE STORMS REMAIN SURFACE BASED AND ARE ABLE TO PERSIST, THEY
COULD POSE A LOW TORNADO RISK ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS (ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES). THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST
SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL EJECT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH A SURFACE FRONT/LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. WHILE WE WON'T SEE MUCH OF A COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, THE WEST WINDS SHOULD BRING SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR INTO OUR REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STAY IN THE 70S AS CLOUDS CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
/WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK/
THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY LINGERING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPPER OFF
BEFORE THANKSGIVING DAY AND PERHAPS WE WILL ALSO ENJOY SOME
COOLER WEATHER DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S FOR NORTH TEXAS
AND 70S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS ARE SHOWING
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STEADILY PROGRESSING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AS EXPECTED, THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL STILL CHANGE FROM HERE TO THERE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS (10% CHANCE) OF
UP TO 4 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS OVER
THE REGION GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR
FORECAST UPDATES, ESPECIALLY IF TRAVELING DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY WEEK.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TOWARD THE MID-LATE WEEK WITH
FORECAST HIGHS STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S REGION WIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND LOW CEILINGS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND LOW CEILINGS/VSBY. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
01-02Z, EXPECT ON-AND-OFF CONVECTION BEFORE THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX WHICH COULD IMPACT KACT
BETWEEN 08-11Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE NORTH TEXAS SITES,
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 16-17Z FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 61 76 52 69 / 100 20 0 0
WACO 63 77 52 71 / 90 40 10 10
PARIS 62 75 50 69 / 100 20 0 0
DENTON 57 75 46 68 / 90 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 60 75 49 68 / 100 20 0 0
DALLAS 62 76 53 70 / 100 20 0 0
TERRELL 62 77 50 70 / 100 30 10 0
CORSICANA 65 78 54 73 / 90 40 10 10
TEMPLE 62 78 52 73 / 90 40 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 55 77 46 73 / 80 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ102>105-117>121-130>134-
141>146-156>159.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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