162
FXUS64 KFWD 211816
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN HAZARD WITH OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
- THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS COOL AND DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS WILL DISSIPATE
AND/OR MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A <20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT OTHERWISE THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH QUIETLY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. A LITTLE BIT OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE FRONT CLEARS THAT AREA, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
TOMORROW WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S, AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, AND SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND
STORMS BACK TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, IN PARTICULAR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS,
AND THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS AS THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
OUR MOST RECENT HEAVY RAIN MAKER THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD 1-4" OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOST RECENTLY OCCURRED
ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE AND EASTLAND COUNTIES INTO THE DFW
METROPLEX COUNTIES, STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO HUNT AND DELTA
COUNTIES. THIS BROAD AREA WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, JUST LIKE EARLIER THIS WEEK, AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20, AND THIS AREA IS ALSO WHERE THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF A
FEW AREAS RECEIVING 4-5" TOTALS, IN PARTICULAR WHERE TRAINING OF
STORMS MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING, STREAM AND CREEK
RISES ARE LIKELY AND SOME RIVER FLOODING INTO THE MINOR OR MODERATE
CATEGORY IS ALSO EXPECTED.
ONE ADDITIONAL THING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. SPC HAS A MRGL RISK COVERING THAT AREA FOR
ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL, BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
LIMITED MUCAPE DESPITE DECENT SHEAR AND OKAY LAPSE RATES.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING-NIGHT, AND THEN
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
WE WILL END THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AS THE LAST OF THE RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 67 50 68 / 0 0 0 40
WACO 51 68 49 68 / 0 0 0 30
PARIS 48 65 47 68 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 45 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 50
MCKINNEY 47 66 46 68 / 0 0 0 40
DALLAS 51 67 50 68 / 0 0 0 40
TERRELL 49 67 48 69 / 0 0 0 20
CORSICANA 54 70 51 71 / 0 0 0 20
TEMPLE 50 70 49 69 / 0 0 10 30
MINERAL WELLS 46 70 45 69 / 0 0 10 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLDUNN
LONG TERM....JLDUNN
AVIATION...JLDUNN
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