906
FXUS64 KFWD 221157
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- THERE IS A LOW SEVERE THREAT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL.
- THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS COOL AND DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST PUSHED THROUGH THE LAST OF OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AS OF 1AM. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PUSHES OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WITH ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS, NORTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
A COOL START TO THE WEEKEND WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA, RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. UNDER BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR, EXPECT TODAY TO
REMAIN RAIN-FREE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S
WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S, BUT CLIMATOLOGICALLY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
BY TOMORROW, THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DRIVE OUR NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS LOW, MOISTURE RETURN WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP, BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 60-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
97TH PERCENTILE (OR HIGHER) BACK TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST AS LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST IN WAVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS MINUTE
DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW TO OUR NORTH.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE
BETWEEN 0.50" TO 3", WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE UPPER BOUNDS OF BOTH THE MOST
LIKELY AND ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS, HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MISS
OUT ON HEAVIER RAINFALL. A LITTLE OVER HALF (56%) OF THE LONG-
RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS, ENS, GEPS) SHOW INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS
SPREADING SOUTH INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL OF
THIS TO SAY, WE ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ON JUST WHERE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL END UP IN ACTUALITY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GUIDANCE AS WE GET INTO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WINDOW. AS
OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK IS FLOODING THANKS TO SOILS BEING PRIMED FROM LAST
WEDNESDAY- FRIDAY. THIS FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATEST IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND
MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AS FOR SEVERE PARAMETERS, OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS NOT MUCH TO
"WRITE HOME" ABOUT, WITH NEGLIGIBLE SBCAPE AND < 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
IN LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR > 40 KTS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES > 6.5 C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN AREAS WEST OF I-35. THESE STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL.
EVENTUALLY, THE LOW WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY, USHERING THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT RAIN CHANCES FURTHER
EAST. BEHIND THIS DRYLINE, EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO MIDWEEK. THE SYSTEM'S TRUE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL ARRIVE RAIN-FREE DUE TO
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL MARK A DECENT DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY). AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA HAS MADE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS SOUTH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT REMAINS NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS OF 6AM. THESE CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR AS
D10, BUT IF THEY HAPPEN TO STICK AROUND AND CONTINUE SOUTH LONG
ENOUGH, CURRENT TIMING HAS THEM REACHING NORTHERN D10 CLOSER TO
1800Z. DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES OF THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING,
THE TAFS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CIRRUS TO STREAM
OVERTOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NORTH-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
AT ALL TAF SITES, BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE
EAST-NORTHEAST MID-LATE TOMORROW MORNING. JUST AFTER THE 30 HOUR
PERIOD ENDS, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 49 67 57 / 0 0 30 80
WACO 68 48 67 60 / 0 0 20 50
PARIS 64 46 67 54 / 0 0 0 70
DENTON 66 44 67 53 / 0 0 40 90
MCKINNEY 65 45 67 55 / 0 0 20 80
DALLAS 67 50 68 58 / 0 0 20 80
TERRELL 66 47 69 57 / 0 0 10 70
CORSICANA 70 50 70 60 / 0 0 10 50
TEMPLE 71 48 69 60 / 0 0 20 40
MINERAL WELLS 71 45 70 55 / 0 0 60 90
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page