488
FXUS64 KFWD 221759
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE SOUTH OF I-20 AND
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
- THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY,
LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT IS NOW SETTLED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AS OF THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON, OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE RED
RIVER, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
BACK SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING BEGINNING A PERIOD
OF MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS. A PLUME OF DEEPER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY SHIFTING EAST
TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH OUR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281 AS EARLY AS 3-4PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL GENERALLY AFTER 7-8PM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, KEEPING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
VERY LOW. MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
MORE ROBUST CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CASES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME,
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT OBSERVED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENT.
BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DRAGGING A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A FINAL, DISORGANIZED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE
FEATURE BY MIDDAY MONDAY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT INTO EAST TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING EXITING OUR FORECAST
AREA BY 6-8PM. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, A PLUME OF SBCAPE ~750-1250
J/KG IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND ACCESS TO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
A SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
BUT FORECASTED SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 100-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WILL
BE PRESENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW END TORNADO THREAT.
THIS THREAT WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN ANY CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP OUT IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LINE OF
STORMS, HOWEVER, IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WARM-SECTOR ACTIVITY WILL
ULTIMATELY MATERIALIZE.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL FALL IN
THE 1.5-3" RANGE WITH ISOLATED 4+" TOTALS ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND 0.5-1.5" DOWN IN CENTRAL TEXAS. A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL USHER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SETTLED
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT (DRY FROPA) WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL RURAL AND LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS MAY DIP TO FREEZING THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS. FEW TO SCT CIGS AOB ~2KFT MAY NUDGE
INTO NORTHERN D10 FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD TURNING BACK OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY MID-
MORNING SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE JUST AFTER THE DFW EXTENDED PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 49 67 57 71 / 0 10 90 90
WACO 46 68 60 72 / 0 10 60 100
PARIS 46 67 53 66 / 0 0 80 100
DENTON 43 67 53 71 / 0 20 90 90
MCKINNEY 45 67 55 69 / 0 10 90 100
DALLAS 49 69 57 71 / 0 10 90 100
TERRELL 46 69 57 71 / 0 0 80 100
CORSICANA 49 71 60 74 / 0 0 60 100
TEMPLE 47 69 60 74 / 0 10 50 90
MINERAL WELLS 45 70 55 76 / 0 40 90 80
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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