688
FXUS64 KFWD 231156
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS, ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS WEST OF I-35 COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE SOUTH
OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35 MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS,
BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
- A RETURN TO COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS, AROUND THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6
PM MONDAY, AND MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN AREA LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE, AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS BELOW
REMAIN VALID.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
ONE LAST RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVERTOP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OUR
NEXT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BOTTOMING OUT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THE UPPER LOW OUT
WEST WILL CONTINUE ITS EXPECTED NORTHEASTERN TRAJECTORY TODAY,
EVENTUALLY SWINGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION, WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
LOW LEVELS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, PROMOTING
RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS A RESULT, CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
SURFACE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT AND WARM FRONT.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND WEST-CENTRAL NORTH
TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE COOLER
STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS, WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. HOWEVER, MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 50 KTS, AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEGC/KM
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO
COLORADO/KANSAS. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL REALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK. CAUTION
IS URGED FOR ANY TRAVELERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO "TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN."
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE WHOLE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH WIDESPREAD
1-3" ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND 0.50-1.5" ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4+" ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. CONSIDERING OUR LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION,
WHERE THE A WIDE SWATH OF 1-4" FELL OVER AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR, A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SWING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, THE
SYSTEM'S AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE USHERED
EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND GROW INTO MESSY, DISORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS. EVEN SO, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND
EAST OF I-35) MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
INCREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG LOW AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, OF MOST
CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR A LOW TORNADO THREAT IN EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS AREA CONTAINING
SBCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WE'LL NEED
TO SEE EXACTLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SPIN WE'RE
COOKING WITH, WE'LL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL AND
UPDATING THE FORECAST AND MESSAGING AS NEEDED. THE SEVERE THREAT
AND ALL OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
EXPECT THE MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK TO BE RATHER QUIET AND
DRY. THE LOW THAT SUPPLIED OUR EARLY WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL
FINALLY EJECT OFF WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST, SHUNTING THE SYSTEM'S
TRUE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S ON THANKSGIVING, AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS, IT'LL BE A PERFECT DAY TO
WEAR COZY CLOTHES AND EAT LOTS OF TURKEY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS, USHERING MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE END DAYS OF NOVEMBER.
MORE DETAILS ON THIS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY,
THEN RETURN EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD, BUT EXPECT
INCREASING LOW- LEVEL VFR CIGS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REALLY DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE
REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL
FOR VCSH AT ACT THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
FOREGO TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
MONITORED FOR FUTURE ISSUANCE.
ISOLATED VCTS MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT D10 AS EARLY AS 03Z AND ACT
CLOSER TO AROUND 07Z. OVERNIGHT, FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07Z, AND LINGER OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
IMPACTS FROM STORMS AND ARE EXPECTED NEAR DAYBREAK, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS D10. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT GREATEST TSRA IMPACTS WITHIN D10
TO BE NEAR THE TIMEFRAME OF 12-15Z, BUT THIS WINDOW MAY BE
EXTENDED IN FUTURE AMENDMENTS AND ISSUANCES AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. MAIN THREATS
WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, ERRATIC, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ACT'S WINDOW FOR TSRA REMAINS OUT
OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND WILL BE COVERED IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES. IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AROUND 15Z AND ONWARD, GOING THROUGH
THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PERIOD AT DFW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 57 71 53 / 20 90 90 10
WACO 68 61 73 51 / 10 50 90 20
PARIS 65 54 65 51 / 0 80 100 30
DENTON 66 53 71 47 / 20 100 90 10
MCKINNEY 66 55 70 50 / 10 90 100 10
DALLAS 68 58 71 53 / 10 90 100 10
TERRELL 68 57 71 52 / 10 80 90 30
CORSICANA 70 61 75 55 / 10 60 100 30
TEMPLE 70 61 76 51 / 10 40 90 20
MINERAL WELLS 71 55 76 47 / 50 100 90 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-123-129.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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