763
FXUS64 KFWD 240750
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
150 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
- AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE SOUTH
OF I-20 AND ALONG/EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, INCLUDING A COUPLE
TORNADOES, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A RETURN TO COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS A SMALL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS TREND
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS AS WAVES OF CONVECTION
SPREADS FROM SE TO NW AS THOSE MINUTE SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY CHURNING THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SPREADS
INCREASED LIFT OVERTOP THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING AND GROWING INTO MESSY CLUSTER/LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO OUR WEST.
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, THE SURFACE DRYLINE/FRONT AND THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE USHERED EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. TRAINING
STORMS THAT ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WILL INCREASE
THE FLOOD THREAT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHERE A MAJORITY
OF THE HEAVY RAIN FROM LAST WEEK'S EVENT FELL. THE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS (INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE I-35 AND I-20 CORRIDORS) WILL BE IMPACTED TODAY
NEAR PEAK AM RUSH HOUR, SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS,
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION, AND DRIVE
SLOWLY TO AVOID HYDROPLANING! BY NOON (TIMING OF LATEST
GUIDANCE), OUR MESSY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF I-35, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED FLOOD THREAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
INTO EASTERN NORTH TEXAS, WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 3 PM. OVERALL, MOST LIKELY TOTALS IN NORTH TEXAS REMAIN
1-3 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA.
SOUTH OF I-20, STORMS MAY BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE HAIRY. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH I-20
AND NEAR/EAST I-35 WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF INCREASED INSTABILITY,
WITH CONTINUED STEEP DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
IN THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT THE EXACT EXTENT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SBCAPE AND
0-1KM SRH, AND 0-1KM SHEAR, DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. THIS WHICH
WOULD INHIBIT BETTER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. WE'LL NEED TO WATCH
FOR 1. ANY CLEARING WITHIN THE CLOUDS, AND 2. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS, AS THAT WOULD HELP TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND SPIN AND LOCALLY INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME TO AND END TONIGHT, WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES IN THEIR WAKE. MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE EXITING RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM'S TRUE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ON WEDNESDAY:
EXPECT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID-UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS. EVEN
UNDER SUNNY SKIES, NORTH WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON THURSDAY / CELEBRATING THANKSGIVING:
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD REACH FREEZING. THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S. ONCE AGAIN, THE DAY WILL BE RAIN-FREE.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN RESPONSE,
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM ON AND OFF ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, IMPACTING WESTERN D10 TAF SITES (MAINLY AFW,
FTW, AND OCCASIONALLY DFW). THIS TREND OF PERIODIC WAVES OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS, WITH
COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
BY 10-11Z, EXPECT A MESSY LINE OF STORMS TO BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN D10, WITH HIGHEST TSRA IMPACTS (ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS, IFR
OR LOWER VISIBILITY, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN) POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 11-14Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AFTER THE INITIAL HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH, RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO IFR. THE SE-NW ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT
TO WHERE ACT WILL HAVE THEIR GREATEST IMPACTS BETWEEN 17-20Z,
THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AROUND THE AIRPORT
AS EARLY AS 12Z UNDER IFR CIGS.
ALL RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER 18Z AND
ACT AFTER 22Z, WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILINGS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD, GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
WESTERLY, AND TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 51 70 43 / 100 0 0 0
WACO 73 50 72 45 / 90 10 0 0
PARIS 61 50 66 41 / 100 20 0 0
DENTON 69 46 69 38 / 90 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 67 49 68 40 / 100 0 0 0
DALLAS 69 52 70 44 / 100 0 0 0
TERRELL 66 51 70 43 / 100 10 0 0
CORSICANA 72 54 72 46 / 90 30 0 0
TEMPLE 75 50 75 45 / 90 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 46 73 40 / 80 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>120-123-129.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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