272
FXUS64 KFWD 241202
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED
FLOODING, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THREATS THROUGH THE MORNING.
- AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE SOUTH
OF I-20 AND ALONG/EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, INCLUDING A COUPLE
TORNADOES, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A RETURN TO COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, AND WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
OBSERVATIONS OF SEVERE CALIBER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE MORE
ROBUST PORTIONS OF THE LINE, BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE SEVERE
THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE STARTING TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, AND THIS MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED ON TOP OF ANY
BETTER DIURNAL STABILIZATION TO BETTER ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL
INCREASED LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE OVERNIGHT, SO THE DISCUSSIONS BELOW ARE
STILL VALID.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS A SMALL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS TREND
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS AS WAVES OF CONVECTION
SPREADS FROM SE TO NW AS THOSE MINUTE SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY CHURNING THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SPREADS
INCREASED LIFT OVERTOP THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING AND GROWING INTO MESSY CLUSTER/LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO OUR WEST.
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, THE SURFACE DRYLINE/FRONT AND THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE USHERED EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. TRAINING
STORMS THAT ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WILL INCREASE
THE FLOOD THREAT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHERE A MAJORITY
OF THE HEAVY RAIN FROM LAST WEEK'S EVENT FELL. THE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS (INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE I-35 AND I-20 CORRIDORS) WILL BE IMPACTED TODAY
NEAR PEAK AM RUSH HOUR, SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS,
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION, AND DRIVE
SLOWLY TO AVOID HYDROPLANING! BY NOON (TIMING OF LATEST
GUIDANCE), OUR MESSY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF I-35, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED FLOOD THREAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
INTO EASTERN NORTH TEXAS, WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 3 PM. OVERALL, MOST LIKELY TOTALS IN NORTH TEXAS REMAIN
1-3 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA.
SOUTH OF I-20, STORMS MAY BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE HAIRY. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH I-20
AND NEAR/EAST I-35 WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF INCREASED INSTABILITY,
WITH CONTINUED STEEP DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
IN THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT THE EXACT EXTENT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SBCAPE AND
0-1KM SRH, AND 0-1KM SHEAR, DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. THIS WHICH
WOULD INHIBIT BETTER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. WE'LL NEED TO WATCH
FOR 1. ANY CLEARING WITHIN THE CLOUDS, AND 2. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELDS, AS THAT WOULD HELP TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND SPIN AND LOCALLY INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME TO AND END TONIGHT, WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES IN THEIR WAKE. MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE EXITING RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM'S TRUE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ON WEDNESDAY:
EXPECT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID-UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS. EVEN
UNDER SUNNY SKIES, NORTH WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON THURSDAY / CELEBRATING THANKSGIVING:
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD REACH FREEZING. THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S. ONCE AGAIN, THE DAY WILL BE RAIN-FREE.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN RESPONSE,
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE
IS EXITING D10 AS OF 12Z, BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS
NOW ENTERING D10 AND WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, IMPACTING D10 AIRPORT TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
13-14Z. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE WILL IMPACT ACT A BIT
LATER, LIKELY CLOSER TO 17-19Z. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS MORNING, AND MAY BOUNCE AROUND AS THE
TRAILING RAIN SHIELD AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES PERSIST UNTIL
18Z AT D10 AND 21Z AT ACT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY AND CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE, WITH VFR
RETURNING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE WNW-NW AND THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 51 70 43 / 100 0 0 0
WACO 73 50 72 45 / 90 10 0 0
PARIS 61 50 66 41 / 100 20 0 0
DENTON 69 46 69 38 / 90 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 67 49 68 40 / 100 0 0 0
DALLAS 69 52 70 44 / 100 0 0 0
TERRELL 66 51 70 43 / 100 10 0 0
CORSICANA 72 54 72 46 / 90 30 0 0
TEMPLE 75 50 75 45 / 90 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 46 73 40 / 80 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>120-123-129.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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