858
FXUS64 KFWD 241833
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EASTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
TORNADOES.
- A RETURN TO COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AUSTIN MSA
ALONG AN EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID OUT BY THIS MORNING'S
ACTIVITY. A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY SURGING NORTHWARD DRAWING LOW
70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A MODERATE PLUME OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND PEAKS OF SUN THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. 15-25 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND A
STOUT 30-40 KT LLJ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 100-200 S2/M2 OF LOW-
LEVEL SRH OVER MUCH OF THE NOW UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, INCLUDING A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES, BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE TORNADO THREAT SEEMS
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (FREESTONE, ANDERSON, LEON
COUNTIES) WHERE A CONFLUENCE BAND OF SUPERCELLS MAY TRACK OVER IN
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BACK TOWARD THE WEST ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS,
THE TORNADO THREAT MAY TAKE ON A MORE QLCS-LIKE MODE, UNLESS
CONTINUED SEMI-DISCRETE CELL REGENERATION OCCURS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY. ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THE
STORM MODE IS QUITE MESSY OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, AND THAT
WILL LIKELY HINDER THE TORNADO THREAT FROM BEING MUCH HIGHER
TODAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR BRAZOS
VALLEY AND EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH 7PM THIS
EVENING.
ALL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS BY ~7PM THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING OUT OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER SURGES OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS SYSTEM'S ACTUAL
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH SUNNY
SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT (DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE) WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
ENJOY THE SUNNY AND COOL WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BECAUSE BY FRIDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO MORE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. POST-THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM
AND WET CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR USHERS IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO LIFT AND CLEAR THE D10 TERMINALS AND KACT BY
20Z-21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
CLOUDS CLEAR WITH AN EVENTUAL NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THIS STORM SYSTEM'S ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE LARGELY
FINISHED OVER THE METROPLEX, BUT VCTS/VCSH COULD CONTINUE NEAR
KACT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 69 43 56 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 49 71 44 58 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 49 65 40 55 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 45 68 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 68 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 52 69 44 57 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 49 70 42 58 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 52 73 45 60 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 49 74 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 46 73 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page