274
FXUS64 KFWD 242343
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY EAST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY.
- A RETURN TO COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS
EVENING WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED AND A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUD COVER HAS
HALTED VERY NEAR I-35 AND A SLOW WESTWARD EXPANSION IS EXPECTED
FOR A FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, SOME DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP IN AND AROUND AREAS OF FOG.
DUNN
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AUSTIN MSA
ALONG AN EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID OUT BY THIS MORNING'S
ACTIVITY. A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY SURGING NORTHWARD DRAWING LOW
70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A MODERATE PLUME OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND PEAKS OF SUN THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. 15-25 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND A
STOUT 30-40 KT LLJ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 100-200 S2/M2 OF LOW-
LEVEL SRH OVER MUCH OF THE NOW UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, INCLUDING A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES, BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE TORNADO THREAT SEEMS
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (FREESTONE, ANDERSON, LEON
COUNTIES) WHERE A CONFLUENCE BAND OF SUPERCELLS MAY TRACK OVER IN
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BACK TOWARD THE WEST ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS,
THE TORNADO THREAT MAY TAKE ON A MORE QLCS-LIKE MODE, UNLESS
CONTINUED SEMI-DISCRETE CELL REGENERATION OCCURS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY. ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THE
STORM MODE IS QUITE MESSY OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, AND THAT
WILL LIKELY HINDER THE TORNADO THREAT FROM BEING MUCH HIGHER
TODAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR BRAZOS
VALLEY AND EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH 7PM THIS
EVENING.
ALL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS BY ~7PM THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING OUT OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER SURGES OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS SYSTEM'S ACTUAL
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH SUNNY
SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT (DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE) WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
ENJOY THE SUNNY AND COOL WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BECAUSE BY FRIDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO MORE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. POST-THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM
AND WET CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE D10
AIRSPACE INCLUDING DFW/DAL/GKY. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THESE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL A PUSH OF DRIER
AIR ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, AREAS OF
FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT AFW/FTW,
CIGS ARE IMPINGING ON THE SITES NOW AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS.
DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CIGS/VIS...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 68 43 56 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 50 71 44 58 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 50 65 40 55 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 46 67 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 49 66 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 51 68 44 57 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 67 42 58 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 54 71 45 60 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 49 73 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 46 72 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...DUNN
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