020
FXUS64 KFWD 251108
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
508 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.
- MORE RAIN AND A FEW STORMS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY, AND CURRENT
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
RANGING FROM 1/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
LATEST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DENSE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE
TO AZLE TO WACO TO CAMERON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA OF DENSE FOG, LITTLE
ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING TO PUSH THE DRY AIR EASTWARD.
THEREFORE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. LATER THIS MORNING AROUND 10Z-12Z, WEAK CAA WILL BEGIN AND
CAUSE A SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, AND
THIS MAY HELP SHIFT SOME OF THE FOG OUT OF TEXOMA AND THE
METROPLEX. OTHERWISE, IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING TO
ERODE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM
INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BORDER
INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THEN RACE SOUTH THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER NICE, QUIET AND COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE 50S TO AROUND 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THANKSGIVING MORNING LOOKS CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR NEARLY ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, AND A FEW SPOTS
COULD EVEN FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. HOWEVER, SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 60S BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY AS A 45 KT
H5 JET STREAK MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND A
STRONGER 60KT H5 JET APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CAUSING
WAA TO STRENGTHEN ATOP THE COOL LAYER OF AIR AT THE SURFACE. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT BY FRIDAY EVENING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO-THIRDS,
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN OUT
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN OUR LAST TWO RAIN
EVENTS, WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN
THE BIG COUNTRY TO NEAR AN INCH IN EAST TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER
ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY AS ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY STAYS OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND KINEMATICS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE.
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING VASTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS A LARGE, DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH, WHICH KEEPS RAIN AND A FEW STORMS GOING ALL DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. IN CONTRAST, THE WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH ECMWF DRIES US OUT QUICKLY POST-COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS US DRY INTO MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE AND SHOW NO CLEAR SOLUTION, ALTHOUGH
IN GENERAL THEY ALL SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE GFS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW FOG AND LOW CIGS RAPIDLY
ERODING FROM THE WEST ACROSS D10. THEREFORE WILL START TAFS WITH
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR TEMPO VLIFR AT GKY, THEN QUICKLY
IMPROVE THEM ALL TO VFR BY 13-14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING, THEN NORTHERLY PLUS INCREASE TO 10-15
KTS AFTER 02-04Z WITH A FROPA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 43 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 71 44 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 64 39 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 69 37 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 67 40 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 69 43 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 68 41 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 71 45 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 44 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 39 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ094-095-
104>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-161-162.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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