298
FXUS64 KFWD 251816
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MORE RAIN AND A FEW STORMS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
RANGE FROM 1/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE DAY AS SUNSHINE HAS
RETURNED TO MOST OF THE REGION (ALL BUT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES)
AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE BARRELING TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND FOR CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AN
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A STEADY NORTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT, AS COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE MID-WEEK COLD
FRONT. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S, WITH A FEW OF OUR COOLER SPOTS POTENTIALLY DIPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH WILL OFFSET DAYTIME WARMING AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ONCE AGAIN.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FROM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WHICH REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, COLUMN
MOISTURE WON'T BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS OUR RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS OVERALL, RELATIVE TO
WHAT WE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE
BETWEEN 1/4" AND 2" ON AVERAGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE
LATEST NBM FORECAST ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER
OVERALL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS AIR COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE'LL SEE A RATHER CHILLY
STRETCH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING
A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE
WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND COLD FRONT, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENT IT ALIGNS WITH ANY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY (RAIN-
FREE) COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO AROUND 12 TO 17 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 43 57 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 44 58 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 39 56 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 37 56 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 40 56 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 43 57 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 41 57 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 45 60 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 44 60 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 39 60 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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