382
FXUS64 KFWD 260725
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MORE RAIN AND A FEW STORMS RETURN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1/10 INCH TO
OVER 1 INCH. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH
TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS HOUR, CURRENTLY STRETCHING
FROM LAMPASAS TO TYLER PER NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES NOW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE RED RIVER TO MID 50S IN CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHWEST UP TO
THE UPPER 40S IN OUR SOUTHEAST. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY,
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AREAWIDE.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A CHILLY ONE AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
OVER OKLAHOMA, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC WEATHER-WISE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO, AND A MUCH STRONGER 65KT H5 JET STREAK DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS US FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STRENGTHENING
WAA WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH RAIN AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING SHOVED OUT OF AREA BY A STRONG COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO ONLY RANGE FROM ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN
THE BIG COUNTRY TO AROUND 1 INCH IN EAST TEXAS, SO NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY VERSUS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY MORNING SHOW MUCAPE INCREASING TO
500-1000 J/KG ATOP THE COOL STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS, WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM AND 0-8KM SHEAR AROUND 55 KNOTS.
THESE PARAMETERS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL IN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. AS CONTINUED WAA BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND THE SURFACE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS EXISTS FROM
MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW EFFECTIVE CAPE RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR UP TO
60 KNOTS. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH A LESSER
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD ALSO BE A LOW THREAT
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR, THE
FORECAST POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 5-6 C/KM WOULD LIKELY
NEGATE ANY TORNADO RISK IN OUR AREA, SIMILAR TO OUR LAST SYSTEM.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,
ENDING THE RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. VERY STRONG CAA IN ITS WAKE
WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS
LOWS IN THE 20S/30S EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE 40S/50S EACH AFTERNOON. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF HAVE ALSO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING SUNDAY MOSTLY DRY BEFORE A LARGE
POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGS
US ANOTHER ROUND OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WITH A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PRECIPITATION
MOVING IN ON TOP OF IT, THIS OBVIOUSLY RAISES EYEBROWS ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION, IN THIS CASE FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY CONDITIONS WILL COME
TOGETHER IN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
MISCHIEF, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO MARGINAL AND QPF TOO LIGHT,
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON,
HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 8-13 KNOTS TODAY BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT. SKC IS ANTICIPATED TODAY, WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 57 40 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 58 38 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 55 34 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 56 34 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 56 36 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 57 39 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 36 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 60 40 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 60 38 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 60 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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