198
FXUS64 KFWD 281932
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS
EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IN ITS WAKE, THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.
- SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS NOW MINIMAL
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST NEAR THE RED RIVER,
WHEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION COINCIDES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE TEMPERATURES BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST WE SEE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OUR STRONG COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF IS
STILL ON TRACK TO COMMENCE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
A FAST, LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY, FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE, HOWEVER, ARE QUITE DRY, AND THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL PICK UP, AND WE'LL START TO SEE LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME MEAGER (~400-500 JKG-1) AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE WILL LIKELY
EXIST IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD, AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ANY STRONG OR CERTAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD
BE QUITE A STRETCH, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, AND
THUS AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY HAZARDS OTHER THAN LIGHTNING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL FOSTER SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE SUN TO PEEK THROUGH AT
TIMES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING MOISTURE WILL EXIST OVER THE
REGION, HOWEVER, AND THIS MAY YIELD SOME CONTINUED SPRINKLES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LONG ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED
RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY, DRIVING THROUGH THE METROPLEX
TOWARD SUNSET, AND CLEARING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR, WITH TEMPERATURES SLIDING OUT OF THE 60S
AND THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A MODIFIED POLAR
AIRMASS SURGING RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S INTO THE
20S AREAWIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY, WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT TO FACILITATE A NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE I-20
CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY. THE NBM AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES
ADVERTISE SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ACROSS OUR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY SATURDAY EVENING. NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON THIS
COVERAGE, BUT CHOSE TO FOLLOW IT FOR THIS PACKAGE. ASSUMING THIS
ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES, WE'LL SEE A COMBINATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ENOUGH DEEP LAYER CAPE APPEARS
TO EXIST TO CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. HAIL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP.
WITH THE POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE, SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BY
LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. HIGHS REGIONWIDE IN THE 40S WILL
REPRESENT VALUES THAT ARE AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNNY SKIES WILL MATERIALIZE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20, THOUGH CLOUDS
MAY HANG TOUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS ZONES. A
PERSISTENT NORTH WIND WILL ADD AN EDGE FOR THOSE OUTSIDE.
A CLOUDY, COLD DAY WILL USHER IN THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND SHOOT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES BY MONDAY.
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD AIRMASS
NEAR THE SURFACE, PROMOTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION PRIOR TO THE TIME WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AT THIS TIME, NO WINTER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH DAYTIME VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN A RENEWED CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, COUPLED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
BROKEN/OVERCAST VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 06Z, AND PATCHY VIRGA
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD, AND IT'S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
IN THE D10 AREA AFTER 06Z. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION TO RETAIN TSRA IN THE 18Z TAFS,
BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO CARRY THUNDER IF THE LAPSE RATES,
INSTABILITY, AND FORCING IMPLY A GREATER LIKELIHOOD.
THE PRECIPITATION MASS SHOULD SHIFT LARGELY EAST OF THE TERMINALS
IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS OUR REGION,
THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAY EXIST ALL DAY SATURDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS D10 AND IN THE WACO AREAS
AFTER 06Z, PERSISTING UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL FOSTER A MODERATELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH SOUTH WINDS PERSISTING AT SPEEDS OF 12-16 KNOTS, GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 22 KNOTS AT TIMES.
THE OTHER FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
KDFW FORECAST WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT OUT OF
OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSIT D10
IN THE 21Z-23Z PERIOD, WITH A WIND SHIFT AT DFW OF AROUND 22Z.
WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTH
AT SPEEDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
ENOUGH LIFT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
EVEN TSRA AS IT TRANSITS D10 AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH. OMITTED
REFERENCE TO THUNDER IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR INCLUSION IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 69 32 45 / 80 60 20 0
WACO 53 73 36 46 / 70 60 30 0
PARIS 45 61 29 44 / 80 80 30 0
DENTON 48 69 27 44 / 70 50 10 0
MCKINNEY 48 66 30 45 / 80 70 20 0
DALLAS 50 70 33 45 / 80 60 20 0
TERRELL 48 67 32 45 / 80 70 40 0
CORSICANA 53 70 36 47 / 70 70 50 0
TEMPLE 55 74 36 47 / 60 50 30 0
MINERAL WELLS 50 75 29 48 / 70 30 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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