668
FXUS64 KFWD 291146
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S.
- SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN REMAINS LOW, BUT
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW MONDAY MORNING WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COINCIDES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
STORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBITED SOME TRANSIENT ORGANIZATION
EARLIER, WITH RECENT RAP ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTING
POCKETS OF 400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE STILL IN PLACE NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND EXTENDING EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING DUE TO MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEST TO EAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE FORCING FROM THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST
OF THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 MAY STILL CONTEND WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD TREND DRIER BY MIDDAY. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A MUCH MORE
CONSEQUENTIAL COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.
THE FRONT, CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, WILL RACE
INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SURGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF
ASCENT AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION (VIA STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S) WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY
SUCH STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LATEST
HREF GUIDANCE SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS (20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS) USHERING IN
SHARPLY COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, REACHING THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK, WITH MID TO UPPER 20S FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
SUNDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS. CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE
CLEARER SKIES DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS DRIER AIR
DEEPENS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE BRISK NORTH WIND
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL, PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS, CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
DURING THE WARMER PART OF THE DAY, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE FREEZING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR
RAIN, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
RED RIVER MONDAY MORNING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING AND MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES.
BEYOND MONDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE UNDER
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND GRADUALLY MODERATING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
MIDWEEK, WITH LOWS MODERATING INTO THE MID 30S AND 40S. MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION. SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT DEEPER TROUGHING AND A RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT PREDICTABILITY REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, LOW-END POPS (20-30%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TRENDING DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH A
CONTINUED TREND OF SLOWLY LOWERING CLOUD BASES EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
15-18Z, WITH RECENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND DECREASING LAMP
PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING A MORE LIMITED WINDOW WITH REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT INTO THE
LOW MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE D10 AIRSPACE BETWEEN 22-00Z. A BRIEF
VCTS HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR THIS POTENTIAL, FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. KACT WILL SEE SIMILAR TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED FROPA TIMING CLOSER TO 00-03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 65 32 45 35 / 50 20 0 10
WACO 72 36 46 37 / 60 40 0 20
PARIS 56 29 45 32 / 80 30 0 10
DENTON 68 27 44 30 / 40 10 0 10
MCKINNEY 62 30 44 33 / 60 20 0 10
DALLAS 67 32 45 36 / 60 20 0 10
TERRELL 63 32 45 34 / 70 40 0 20
CORSICANA 67 37 48 37 / 70 50 0 20
TEMPLE 73 37 48 34 / 50 40 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 69 30 48 33 / 20 10 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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