927
FXUS64 KFWD 301142
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S FRONT, WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
TO UPPER 20S THIS MORNING.
- SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
- BRIEF WARMING EXPECTED MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
COOLER AIR AND LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOLDING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE UNDER A STILL-TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FARTHER SOUTH. THESE
READINGS, COUPLED WITH THE PERSISTENT BREEZE, WILL YIELD WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY SUNRISE.
NOT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OVERHEAD, SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE. MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING WILL SUSTAIN NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE COLD POST-FRONTAL SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCE LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%)
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. WHILE A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK,
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE (INCLUDING A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE AND
A SHALLOW OR NON-EXISTENT REFREEZING LAYER) REMAINS UNFAVORABLE
FOR IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER. THUS, NO ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DRIZZLE OR
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN BENEATH A SLOWLY SATURATING MID-LEVEL
PROFILE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD AND WINDS VEERING
TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, FURTHER ELIMINATING ANY LOW-END CONCERNS FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
BEYOND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STEADY
WARMING TREND UNDER INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY MIDWEEK, WITH LOWS
MODERATING INTO THE MID 30S AND 40S. WHILE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MIDWEEK (LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY), MODEL SPREAD REMAINS TOO LARGE TO ZERO IN ON
EXACT TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS, THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR LIMITED GIVEN
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER SUPPORT. NBM PROBABILITIES
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 30% FOR MOST OF THE REGION, APART FROM OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, FOR QPF EXCEEDING ONE-HALF INCH FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, CURRENT CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURE OUTCOMES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TIED PRIMARILY TO FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING AND A
COLDER SOLUTION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THESE REMAIN LOWER PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, WITH A
LINGERING DECK OF STRATOCU NEAR 6-7 KFT EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING AROUND 15-20 KT, BUT
GUSTS ARE BECOMING LESS FREQUENT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE EAST
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.
LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A MENTION OF VCSH HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED AT ALL THE TAF SITES TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 44 36 43 31 / 0 10 30 10
WACO 46 39 46 32 / 0 10 40 20
PARIS 44 32 37 26 / 0 10 50 20
DENTON 44 32 43 25 / 0 10 30 10
MCKINNEY 44 33 41 28 / 0 10 40 20
DALLAS 45 37 43 31 / 0 10 40 10
TERRELL 45 35 43 29 / 0 10 50 20
CORSICANA 47 40 46 34 / 0 20 50 20
TEMPLE 47 38 48 33 / 0 20 40 10
MINERAL WELLS 47 33 48 27 / 0 10 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page