302
FXUS64 KFWD 301854
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER
REMAINS LOW WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING.
- BRIEF WARMING IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AIR AND SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION LATE
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THIS AFTERNOON WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S STRONG COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S REGION-WIDE, ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER.
AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVERTOP
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVER THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER THIS TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND ADVECT WARMER, MOISTURE-RICH AIR
OVERTOP THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. DUE TO THIS INFLUX OF
BETTER MOISTURE, EXPECT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER TO HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, RANGING FROM THE
LOW-MID 30S TO AROUND 40. THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AIR WILL PROMOTE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SPREADING FROM SW TO NE AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
WHILE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL BE LIQUID PRECIPITATION, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY BRIEF
1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN NEAR
THE RED RIVER AND OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES NEAR/JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
A DECENT ELEVATED WARM NOSE, A VERY SHALLOW (OR NONEXISTENT)
REFREEZING LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THIS VERY BORDERLINE TEMPERATURE PROFILE,
COUPLED WITH A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF AT OR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, SHOWS THAT THIS IS NOT A GREAT SET UP FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL WINTER PRECIPITATION. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 50, CONTINUING TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE BREAK
THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND OUR
SHOWERS COME TO AN END, A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALMOST REGION-WIDE. EXPECT
LOW-MID 20S NEAR THE RED RIVER, AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S ELSEWHERE
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
20S, SO MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP ON YOUR WAY OUT THE DOOR!
WE'LL EXPERIENCE A QUICK WARM UP BACK INTO THE 50S AND TO NEAR
70S MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SWINGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY-EARLY
THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE OVERTOP THE REGION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
BREADTH OF THE TEMPERATURE DROP, WITH AROUND ~53% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH AND COLDER POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ALL IN ALL, MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME, SO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO VEER MORE
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD. JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND OCCUR ON AND
OFF NEAR THE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH BEFORE MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST. COVERAGE REMAINS TOO SPOTTY FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
VCSH AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER, BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY, BUT REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS. A DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AND
WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO LIFT AND EXIT THE D10/ACT AIRSPACE. A
DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL FORCE WINDS TO SHIFT
BACK OUT OF THE NORTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, AND NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 44 36 42 30 / 0 20 20 10
WACO 46 39 47 31 / 0 20 20 10
PARIS 44 33 37 24 / 0 20 40 20
DENTON 44 32 42 24 / 0 20 20 10
MCKINNEY 44 33 41 26 / 0 20 30 10
DALLAS 45 37 43 30 / 0 20 30 10
TERRELL 44 35 42 27 / 0 20 40 10
CORSICANA 46 40 46 32 / 0 20 40 10
TEMPLE 47 38 48 31 / 0 20 30 10
MINERAL WELLS 45 33 47 26 / 0 10 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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