768
FXUS64 KFWD 010713
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
113 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION NEAR THE RED RIVER REMAINS LOW WITH
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING.
- BRIEF WARMING IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AIR AND SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION LATE
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING, AIDED BY MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
WHILE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE MODESTLY ORGANIZED LIFT, DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS ARE LIKELY LIMITING MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO VIRGA OR
LIGHT DRIZZLE AT THE SURFACE. WHERE PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THE
GROUND, RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE THANKS TO AN ELEVATED
WARM NOSE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. WITH THAT SAID, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A
FEW REPORTS OF SLEET PELLETS MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY ALSO BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SHALLOW OR ABSENT REFREEZING LAYER, SUPPORTING A
RAIN/DRIZZLE SCENARIO WITH NO MEANINGFUL ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE WANING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIMITED WITH QPF
TOTALS UNDER 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN SO, PERSISTENT LOW-
LEVEL SATURATION BENEATH A GRADUALLY MOISTENING MID-LEVEL PROFILE
MAY RESULT IN INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH CLOUD
COVER, SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND LIMITED MIXING. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN HOVER IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-20, WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS MAY SEE READINGS PEAK NEAR 50 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REINFORCE NORTHERLY FLOW BY LATE IN THE
DAY, ALTHOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE
NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLEARING SKIES AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR MONDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL EFFICIENTLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL DIP INTO
THE MID 20S NEAR THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE
20S AREAWIDE, REINFORCING THE NEED FOR APPROPRIATE COLD WEATHER
PRECAUTIONS TO START THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER WARMING INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD REGARDING FRONTAL
TIMING AND POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NONETHELESS,
INCREASING POPS APPEAR WARRANTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURN MAY OVERLAP THE ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. A MODERATE
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
THIS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MOST PRECIPITATION REMAINS
LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE, AND ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
A PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP WAS NOT INCLUDED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE,
BUT A TEMPO GROUP WAS MAINTAINED FOR POTENTIAL INTERMITTENT
IMPACTS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTH TEXAS
LATER THIS MORNING, WITH CIGS FALLING TO AROUND 2-3 KFT BY MIDDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT/BKN025 IS EXPECTED BY 13-14Z BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SET IN DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY AFTER 19Z WHEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND
CEILINGS LOWER TOWARD 2 KFT. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE FRONT, VEERING GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING.
AT KACT, SIMILAR TRENDS ARE ANTICIPATED, THOUGH LIGHT RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ALREADY, WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 44 30 51 39 / 20 0 0 0
WACO 47 30 52 38 / 30 10 0 0
PARIS 38 25 47 31 / 40 10 0 0
DENTON 43 25 51 36 / 20 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 42 26 50 36 / 30 10 0 0
DALLAS 44 30 51 38 / 20 0 0 0
TERRELL 43 28 50 35 / 30 10 0 0
CORSICANA 47 33 52 39 / 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE 50 31 55 38 / 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 49 27 57 38 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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