949
FXUS64 KFWD 161101
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS RESUMED, AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRENGTHENED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BE
ENCROACHING ON NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY, AND THE OVERCAST CIRRUS
PLUME OVERHEAD IS A HARBINGER OF ITS ARRIVAL. THIS TROUGH DOES NOT
POSSESS A WELL-DEFINED CORRESPONDING SURFACE BOUNDARY, SO ITS
MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY SOURCE OF LIFT IN
ITS VICINITY. SOME MID-LEVEL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE THE
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE LATER TODAY, AND
WE'LL RETAIN A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE WORDED FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEING
SLIM TO NONE.
FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD FINALLY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTS ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
AS THE MIDWEEK CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS, ITS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS PRECEDING IT ARRIVAL, BUT
THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR A MAJORITY OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE POST-FRONTAL CP AIRMASS SOURCE REGION WILL HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS, AND SO THIS FRONT WILL NOT FEATURE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR US LOCALLY FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
IN FACT, IT WILL BARELY BE ABLE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL, WITH FRIDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL BE PRESENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THOUGH, WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
BY SATURDAY SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURE SOARING INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
LOWER 80S, AT LEAST 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WARM AND MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE WEATHER LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY BEFORE MVFR STRATUS RETURNS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERCAST CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY, WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER DAYTIME GUSTS. A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT
VFR HEIGHTS OF 3-5 KFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAYTIME, BUT
THIS DECK WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO 2-3 KFT BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS
EVENING. A LOWERING TO NEAR 1 KFT COULD OCCUR TOWARDS THE VERY END
OF THE VALID PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 47 67 56 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 60 53 67 60 / 0 0 10 0
PARIS 57 45 61 56 / 10 10 10 20
DENTON 61 42 66 51 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 59 46 65 55 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 61 49 67 57 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 59 49 66 57 / 10 0 10 10
CORSICANA 61 53 68 61 / 0 10 10 10
TEMPLE 61 52 69 58 / 0 0 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 43 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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