323
FXUS64 KFWD 161937
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
137 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
OVERALL QUIET AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WE STAY UNDER A THICK DECK OF MID-
TO-HIGH CLOUDS. THE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP PUSH TODAY'S
HIGHS INTO THE 60S REGION WIDE, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE ABOVE US CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW,
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTH FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITHOUT MAKING MUCH
PROGRESSION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE DEW POINTS VALUES, AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. PATCHY FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REDUCED VISIBILITY.
CLOUDY, HUMID, AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. AND BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO UPPER 40S AND
50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS STILL SET TO SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
ON THURSDAY, SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED. WHILE WE WON'T SEE A STRONG COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY DROP TO THE 40S/50S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.
WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE WEST
REACHING THE LOW 80S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE CHRISTMAS WEEK, THE BULK OF THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUES TO KEEP US WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RETURN
OF WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND
05-06Z TONIGHT WITH A SWATH MVFR CEILINGS MOVING NORTHWARD. THEY
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO IFR BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY FOR THE
MAJORITY (IF NOT ALL) OF THE TAF SITES. UNFORTUNATELY, POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWING POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT WEST OF I-35 AFTER 20-21Z, BUT
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 48 65 55 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 61 53 67 60 / 0 10 10 0
PARIS 57 47 59 56 / 10 10 20 30
DENTON 61 43 65 50 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 59 47 63 55 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 61 50 66 57 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 59 50 64 57 / 10 0 10 10
CORSICANA 61 54 66 60 / 0 10 10 10
TEMPLE 62 52 68 58 / 0 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 44 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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