899
FXUS64 KFWD 170006
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 MILE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND BRAZOS RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
- PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
(30-40%) ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A COUPLE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PRIOR
FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE BEEN MADE:
FIRST, INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OWING TO PERSISTENT THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE
RETURN OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING HIGH UNCERTAINTY TO LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY. THIS LOW-PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THEN HOVER
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE PROXIMITY OF MONTAGUE COUNTY. SUBTLE
EAST-WEST SHIFTS IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW BY A COUNTY OR TWO
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS TONIGHT WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES, AND A SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN
MUCH DRIER AIR (WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO COOL MORE EFFICIENTLY).
CURRENT THINKING IS THE WARMER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY (60% CHANCE OF
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S) FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, AS
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MITIGATING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIVE COOLING EVEN IN THE ABSENCE
OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PERSIST TO THE
SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOWER CHANCE (40%) FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN CLEAR AND DRIER AIR FUNNELING IN FOR THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
THE SECOND ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS TOMORROW. WAA
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GIVEN THE LOW QPF EXPECTED (UNDER 0.1"), MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH EXACT COVERAGE OF WHERE PRECIP WILL HIT THE GROUND. FOR NOW,
WILL MAX OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY AROUND
30-40% FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 15-25% CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF EAST
TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
OVERALL QUIET AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WE STAY UNDER A THICK DECK OF MID-
TO-HIGH CLOUDS. THE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP PUSH TODAY'S
HIGHS INTO THE 60S REGION WIDE, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE ABOVE US CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW,
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTH FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITHOUT MAKING MUCH
PROGRESSION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE DEW POINTS VALUES, AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. PATCHY FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REDUCED VISIBILITY.
CLOUDY, HUMID, AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. AND BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO UPPER 40S AND
50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS STILL SET TO SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
ON THURSDAY, SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED. WHILE WE WON'T SEE A STRONG COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY DROP TO THE 40S/50S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.
WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE WEST
REACHING THE LOW 80S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE CHRISTMAS WEEK, THE BULK OF THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUES TO KEEP US WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 SM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER AND BRAZOS RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT AFTER
06Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. PROLONGED
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 13Z, WITH PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS TO LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 20Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KFTW
AND KAFW WHICH SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER
CEILINGS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 64 57 65 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 55 65 60 70 / 10 10 10 0
PARIS 50 57 56 64 / 10 20 30 10
DENTON 52 64 53 65 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 53 62 57 65 / 0 0 10 0
DALLAS 54 64 57 67 / 0 0 10 0
TERRELL 53 62 58 67 / 10 20 20 0
CORSICANA 56 65 61 72 / 10 20 20 0
TEMPLE 54 65 59 73 / 20 20 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 66 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...DARRAH
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