150
FXUS64 KFWD 171900
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THIS WEEK, WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNEVENTFUL AND DRY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- EARLY CHRISTMAS OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AHEAD OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PROPAGATING AND PRODUCING TODAY'S LINGERING CHANGE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. AFTER TODAY,
CHANCES OF RAIN AND MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE MEAGER (0.01 INCH) AT
BEST AND NON-EXISTENT FOR MOST. THIS IS DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW THAT
FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AS IT PROCEEDS EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. NEAR THE
SURFACE, THIS TRANSLATES INTO MOSTLY PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AFTER FRIDAY THAT GENERALLY PUSH THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM
ACROSS I-20 BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR A MILD CHRISTMAS
EVE WITH TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 70S (10-25% CHANCE OF
SOME 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS). POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS ON FRIDAY WILL BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S BEFORE THE
WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS KEEPING CEILINGS LARGELY IN THE
LIFR/IFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED, YIELDING HIGH-END IFR TO LOW-END
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH SUNSET. THEREAFTER, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL BACK TO LIFR/IFR AFTER 18/00Z,
ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF DRIZZLE, VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR IN THE 1
TO 3SM RANGE, AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE RATHER RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY, WITH A RETURN
TO VFR AND IMPROVED VSBYS (CONDITIONS AT KACT TO TAKE A FEW
ADDITIONAL HOURS TO IMPROVE). WINDS S THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AROUND 10KTS, SHIFTING TO THE NW THURSDAY
MORNING 15-17Z AND BECOMING SUSTAINED NEAR 15KTS, GUSTING TO
AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 66 38 63 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 59 71 38 64 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 56 65 35 59 / 30 10 0 0
DENTON 52 65 31 62 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 56 65 33 61 / 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 58 68 39 64 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 68 34 62 / 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 61 71 38 64 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 56 72 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 68 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WFO SHV
LONG TERM....WFO SHV
AVIATION...WFO SHV
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