624
FXUS64 KFWD 180016
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BRING PERIODIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OF A MILE OR LESS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS OF
15-20 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- NEAR-RECORD TO POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS AND THE RETURN OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, AREAS OF MIST, AND EVEN SOME DENSE FOG
(PRIMARILY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS). VISIBILITIES
WILL BE LOWEST SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35 WHERE MANY AREAS
WILL PERIODICALLY DROP BELOW A MILE TONIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT SEE VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE, UNCERTAINTY IN PERSISTENCE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
THESE VISIBILITIES PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
CLEARING OUT THE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL HAVE BEEN IN PLACE THE TWO
DAYS PRIOR. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH, THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS GETTING DOWN TO FREEZING NORTH OF I-20 OUTSIDE OF
THE METROPLEX.
LASTLY, THE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
TO SEE POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THIS SATURDAY WHERE THE
FORECAST AND RECORDS AT DFW AND WACO ARE AS FOLLOWS:
DFW FORECAST SATURDAY 12/20: 77
DFW DAILY RECORD HIGH 12/20: 79 (2010)
WACO FORECAST SATURDAY 12/20: 78
WACO DAILY RECORD HIGH 12/20: 78 (1978)
WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL KEEP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW RECORDS
(WHICH ARE IN THE 80S FOR BOTH DFW AND WACO).
DISCUSSION
SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AHEAD OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PROPAGATING AND PRODUCING TODAY'S LINGERING CHANGE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. AFTER TODAY,
CHANCES OF RAIN AND MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE MEAGER (0.01 INCH) AT
BEST AND NON-EXISTENT FOR MOST. THIS IS DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW THAT
FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AS IT PROCEEDS EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. NEAR THE
SURFACE, THIS TRANSLATES INTO MOSTLY PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AFTER FRIDAY THAT GENERALLY PUSH THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM
ACROSS I-20 BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR A MILD CHRISTMAS
EVE WITH TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 70S (10-25% CHANCE OF
SOME 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS). POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS ON FRIDAY WILL BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S BEFORE THE
WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
EVENING SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 (ALL
TAF SITES). WHILE THE TEMPO GROUP IN DFW TAF SITES EXTENDS 03Z TO
07Z, PERIODIC DROPS TO LIFR MAY CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH 11Z.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING N WINDS (340-010) AT ~15 KTS,
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY 16Z, LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 59 66 39 / 0 10 0 0
WACO 62 60 69 39 / 20 10 0 0
PARIS 58 57 63 35 / 20 30 10 0
DENTON 63 56 65 32 / 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 62 59 65 34 / 10 20 0 0
DALLAS 63 60 67 40 / 0 10 0 0
TERRELL 61 60 67 35 / 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA 63 61 69 39 / 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE 63 59 71 38 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 67 52 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WFO SHV
LONG TERM....WFO SHV
AVIATION...DARRAH
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